Airlines Are Skeptical Of Delivery Targets

Officials at Bombardier are looking to wedge their way into the market for airliners of 110-to-130 seats, and have a promising development program started for their CSeries jet. But company execs say they're finding it difficult to have their projected 2013 start of deliveries taken seriously by the airlines after widely publicized delays in new projects at Boeing and Airbus.

Boeing has announced four delays totalling over two years -- so far -- for its composite 787 Dreamliner. Airbus not only started delivering its A380 superjumbo more than two years late, but has admitted production rates will not reach original projections. Customers and industry pundits also look at delivery projections for the upcoming A350 XWB with skeptical eyes.

Bloomberg reports Benjamin Boehm, Bombardier's VP for commercial aircraft programs, told attendees at a conference in Dublin this week, "That unfortunately destroys airlines' faith in seeing new products. The question is: how do we restore market faith in new aircraft development programs?"

Bombardier said last summer it had a "letter of interest" from Lufthansa for the purchase of 30 planes and another 30 options, but Lufthansa spokesman Peter Scheckenleitner has since gone on record saying, "...there is no deadline and no firm orders."

One thing's for sure -- The Teal Group, a prominent consulting firm, isn't helping Bombardier build confidence. The company now considers the Bombardier CSeries such a long-shot, it's taken the plane completely off its annual 10-year forecast for 2009.

Teal analyst Richard Aboulafia puts it bluntly. "Technological risk, weak airline traffic and low fuel prices all work against new aircraft programs Those are three great reasons not to be in a new jetliner program today. We just don't see it happening." 

FMI: www.bombardier.com, www.tealgroup.com