Forecasts Demand For More Than 1,000 Regional Jets In The Period

Embraer forecasts that 1,020 new 70 to 130-seat jets will be demanded by the Chinese regional aviation market by 2033, representing 16% of global deliveries of jets in that segment, as released in Embraer’s China Regional Aviation Market Outlook in a press conference during the 10th China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition, in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province.

“Consensus has been reached that regional aviation plays a significant role in improving the connectivity, fostering economic advances, and enhancing the social welfare of China’s remote areas. Development of regional aviation is also important for building China into an aviation powerhouse,” said Guan Dongyuan, Senior Vice President of Embraer and President of Embraer China. “As the world’s largest manufacturer of jets up to 130 seats, Embraer has been, and will continue to be committed to the development of China’s regional aviation, jointly with our industry peers.”

The forecast indicates that in the coming two decades, air travel in China will increase 6.8% annually, fostered by the country’s sustained economic growth, with an expected 5.5% annual GDP growth rate. Fast urbanization and a growing middle class will also contribute to building China into one of the world's fastest growing markets.

Regional aviation, supported by civil aviation policies over the past decade, is experiencing rapid development and playing an irreplaceable role in the air transport system. With the launch of the “Essential Air Service” program, the improvement of incentive policies, and more regional airports coming online in central and western China, the regional aviation sector is assured a promising future.

Yet, by an in-depth analysis of the current market weaknesses and insufficiencies, the Outlook finds that the mismatch between market demand and aircraft type results in poor connectivity and lower frequencies, while airlines call for right-sized aircraft to unlock the huge potential in the country’s secondary and tertiary markets, and to avoid irrational and unhealthy competition both on trunk lines and in regional aviation. The new generation of 70 to 130-seat regional jets, with lower operating cost and high performance, can be used in different business models.

The projection is for three hundred 70 to 90-seat jets and seven hundred twenty 90 to 130-seat jets. 87% of new deliveries will be deployed to support market growth, while 13% will replace old aircraft in the current fleet, which includes 50-seat airplanes.

Since the first Embraer jet was delivered to the China market, Embraer has logged 216 firm orders, to date, including 181 commercial jets. Over 100 Embraer commercial jets are currently flying on more than 600 routes serving over 130 cities in this country. Embraer now has an 80% share of China’s regional aviation market.

(Image from file)

FMI: www.embraer.com.cn/outlook.