Forecast International Sees Production Decline Through 2011

A new study released by Forecast International projects that a total of 11,437 business jets, worth an estimated $217.5 billion, will be produced from 2010 through 2019. "The Market for Business Jet Aircraft" also indicates that business jet production, which has dropped sharply since late 2008, will continue declining through 2011.  A recovery in overall business jet build rates will not occur until 2012, according to the Forecast International projections.

The Forecast International study also examines in detail the various trends and factors that drive the business jet market, including the changing nature of the fractional ownership industry.  Aircraft demand from fractional programs helped spurred the market to great heights in past years, but deliveries to fractionals fell off substantially in 2009.  The fractionals are mainly concentrating on the operational side of their business in order to generate cost savings.  New order activity by fractionals has been sparse during the downturn, but is starting to pick up.  According to Forecast International Senior Aerospace Analyst Raymond Jaworowski, "The focus of many fractional providers is on improving operations, reducing costs, and consolidating aircraft fleets."

"The business jet market is not yet in recovery, but the worst of the market downturn is over," said Jaworowski.  "Order intake remains sluggish, but the massive wave of order cancellations and delivery deferrals experienced in late 2008 and much of 2009 has receded.  The market is no longer in freefall."  Order backlogs are a shadow of what they were two years ago but, nevertheless, hundreds of business jet orders are still on the books.

Meanwhile, the downturn has impacted the light and mid-size business jet sectors far more than it has the large-cabin and long-range segments of the market.  While production rates of all types of business jets have been slashed since late 2008, the production cutbacks have been much deeper for light and medium jets than for the larger types.  Demand is already starting to recover for larger, high-value business jets, but it remains moribund for small and medium models.

The Forecast International projections indicate that the top three manufacturers in unit production during the 2010-2019 forecast period will be Cessna, Embraer, and Bombardier.  When the market is measured in terms of the monetary value of production, the top three are Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Dassault.

A number of new business jets are on the way, as manufacturers are hoping that new products will stimulate market demand and kickstart the recovery.  The top end of the market in particular is drawing considerable attention, with Bombardier recently launching its new Global 7000 and Global 8000 models to battle the Gulfstream G650.

FMI: www.forecastinternational.com