Fri, Feb 13, 2004
Sharp Jet Decline Brings Down Total GA Numbers
Shipments of U.S. manufactured
business jets, which is the primary business of Wichita's
Bombardier Aerospace Learjet, Cessna Aircraft Co. and Raytheon
Aircraft Co., fell from 524 in 2002 to 384 in 2003. The sharp
decline (a 27 percent drop) led to the lowest annual billings for
U.S. general aviation manufacturers since 1998. Topping the list of
shipments were 70 for Bombardier Aerospace, including 32 business
jets manufactured and assembled in Wichita, for a total of $1.6
billion, down from 108 airplanes shipped in 2002 and valued at
$2.08 billion.
GAMA belies the weakness in the business jet segment is the
primary reason for the decline in GA billings. In some respects,
2003 is almost the mirror opposite of 2001. During that period, a
robust business jet market led to increased industry billings. But
a weak piston airplane market caused total industry shipments to
decline. Last year, just the opposite happened, as billings were
down because of a weak business jet market, but total industry
shipments were stable because of a strong piston market. The lesson
appears to be that business jets drive billings and piston
airplanes drive shipments.
The size of the used airplane market is a key gauge as to the
strength of the general aviation market. The most concrete numbers
available for used GA airplanes are those related to the turbine
market. According to statistics provided by AMSTAT, in December
2002 nearly 16 percent of the business jet fleet was on the market.
In the spring, the industry saw the market balloon to about 18
percent before shrinking to about 15 percent by the end of the
year. So, GAMA believes the used market is now clearly moving in
the right direction, but points out it is still larger than its
historical average of around 12 percent.
Another encouraging statistic from 2003 comes in the area of
flight activity. Here again, the most concrete numbers the FAA has
for 2003 are those related to business jet operations at the
nation's large airports. In this category, flight activity was up
approximately 1.2 percent.
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