Sharp Jet Decline Brings Down Total GA Numbers

Shipments of U.S. manufactured business jets, which is the primary business of Wichita's Bombardier Aerospace Learjet, Cessna Aircraft Co. and Raytheon Aircraft Co., fell from 524 in 2002 to 384 in 2003. The sharp decline (a 27 percent drop) led to the lowest annual billings for U.S. general aviation manufacturers since 1998. Topping the list of shipments were 70 for Bombardier Aerospace, including 32 business jets manufactured and assembled in Wichita, for a total of $1.6 billion, down from 108 airplanes shipped in 2002 and valued at $2.08 billion.

GAMA belies the weakness in the business jet segment is the primary reason for the decline in GA billings. In some respects, 2003 is almost the mirror opposite of 2001. During that period, a robust business jet market led to increased industry billings. But a weak piston airplane market caused total industry shipments to decline. Last year, just the opposite happened, as billings were down because of a weak business jet market, but total industry shipments were stable because of a strong piston market. The lesson appears to be that business jets drive billings and piston airplanes drive shipments.

The size of the used airplane market is a key gauge as to the strength of the general aviation market. The most concrete numbers available for used GA airplanes are those related to the turbine market. According to statistics provided by AMSTAT, in December 2002 nearly 16 percent of the business jet fleet was on the market. In the spring, the industry saw the market balloon to about 18 percent before shrinking to about 15 percent by the end of the year. So, GAMA believes the used market is now clearly moving in the right direction, but points out it is still larger than its historical average of around 12 percent.

Another encouraging statistic from 2003 comes in the area of flight activity. Here again, the most concrete numbers the FAA has for 2003 are those related to business jet operations at the nation's large airports. In this category, flight activity was up approximately 1.2 percent.

FMI: www.gama.aero