Study Finds Bombardier, Embraer, ATR Will See The Most
Benefit
In a new study, "The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft",
Forecast International projects that 4,016 regional aircraft,
valued at some $123 billion, will be produced from 2010 through
2019. The forecast by the Connecticut-based market research firm
includes both regional jets and regional turboprops, with jets
accounting for about 64 percent of the total.
The Forecast International projections indicate that will
be the leaders among regional aircraft manufacturers during the
10-year forecast period. Bombardier's product line includes both
jet-powered and turboprop-powered aircraft, while Embraer currently
specializes in jets and ATR builds turboprops exclusively.
The top end of the regional aircraft market is seeing an influx
of new models. Bombardier is developing the CSeries, a new family
of 100-145 seat aircraft that transcends the boundary between the
regional jet market and the large airliner market. The CSeries
competes against large regional jets from Embraer and others, and
also against narrowbody airliners such as the Airbus A319 and the
Boeing 737-700.
C110 Artist's Rendering
According to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst
Raymond Jaworowski, "The challenge from the CSeries has become a
prime consideration for Airbus and Boeing as they make development
decisions regarding their narrowbody families."
Embraer is well-positioned in the 70-125 seat market with its
E-Jets series regional jets, and has been pondering future
development strategy. Among the options being considered by the
Brazilian company are a re-engining of the E-Jets family and/or a
larger, all-new aircraft family. The latter would compete in the
market above 125 seats, taking on Bombardier's CSeries.
Embraer E-Jet
A number of companies are looking to break into the regional
aircraft market, and are developing new aircraft that compete for
sales in the top segment of the market. These include the Chinese
firm Comac with its ARJ21 regional jet, the Japanese company
Mitsubishi with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ), and the Russian
firm Sukhoi Civil Aircraft with the Superjet 100.
Sukhoi Superjet 100
All of this activity is taking place against a backdrop of a
changing regional airline industry. Regional airlines were hit hard
in the 2008-2009 airline market slump. A recovery is now under way,
but could easily stall should the general economy remain sluggish
or drop back into recession. Meanwhile, many mainline network
airlines are looking to significantly redefine their relationship
to the regional airlines that operate feeder services into their
networks. Feeder operations are the core business for many regional
carriers. The majors want to alter, or even scrap altogether, the
fixed-fee-per-departure arrangements that have traditionally
defined the major/regional partnership. Increasingly, regionals are
being asked to assume much of the risk, and much of the cost, of
feeder operations.