Short-Term Chaos; Long-Term Growth, Says Forecast
International
Forecast International's "The Market for Regional Transport
Aircraft" projects that a total of 3,754 regional aircraft will be
produced during the next 10 years (2009-2018). This forecast
includes both regional jets, which account for about two-thirds of
the forecast, and regional turboprops. As calculated in
constant 2009 U.S. dollars, the value of the forecast production is
estimated at some $115 billion.
According to the Forecast International study, the top three
regional aircraft manufacturers during the forecast timeframe will
be Bombardier, Embraer, and ATR. Combined, the three
manufacturers are expected to account for more than 70 percent of
the regional aircraft built during the 10-year period, and more
than 80 percent of the monetary value of worldwide
production. However, the study also points to a number of
newcomers entering the regional aircraft market that will challenge
the established players for sales and market share. These
include the Chinese firm AVIC with its ARJ21 regional jet, the
Japanese company Mitsubishi with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ),
and the Russian firm Sukhoi Civil Aircraft with the Superjet
100.
AVIC ARJ21
Meanwhile, Bombardier, Embraer, and ATR are not sitting still,
as all three are looking at refreshing and expanding their current
product lines. Besides bringing its new CSeries family of
100-145 seat airliners into service, Bombardier may introduce a
stretched, 90-passenger version of its 70-seat Q400
turboprop. ATR is studying the possibility of developing an
all-new turboprop family in the 70-98 seat range. Embraer is
considering several possible options to enhance its product line,
including a new jetliner sized above 120 seats.
All these products are intended for use by a regional airline
industry that is currently in the midst of a prolonged
downturn. The robust growth that characterized the regional
sector in the past several years has come to an end amidst
declining air traffic and passenger enplanements. Many
regional carriers are struggling in the current business
environment, and are beginning to question some of their
traditional methods of operation.
There are some bright spots in the industry, though.
According to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst
Raymond Jaworowski, "A handful of regionals have managed to remain
financially strong, often through adept strategies involving some
combination of operational efficiencies and proper sizing of the
types of aircraft that they fly. A number of these carriers
are replacing smaller, relatively uneconomical aircraft with
larger, more profitable aircraft."
Bombardier C300
Generally, this strategy involves grounding 50-seat regional
jets in favor of 70-seat or larger transports. Once air
traffic on regional routes rebounds and resumes its growth, many
more regional carriers will follow suit in acquiring
larger-capacity aircraft to replace smaller jets in their
fleets.