Efficiency Drives Demand For Large Freighters
Boeing projects the global air cargo market will continue to
exhibit strong, long-term growth, according to the company's
Current Market Outlook 2008. During the 20-year forecast period,
Boeing projects that the industry will grow at an annualized
average of 5.8 percent with the world freighter fleet increasing
from 1,948 to 3,892 airplanes.
This growth requires a total of 3,358 airplanes joining the
freighter fleet by 2027, taking into account anticipated airplane
retirements of 1,414 airplanes, according to the annual Outlook,
which was released prior to the 2008 Farnborough Air Show.
The fleet additions will include 863 new production freighters,
with a value of about $206 billion in current US dollars, and 2,495
airplanes from conversions. Widebody freighters will dominate the
new production freighter total and 641 will be of the large
freighter segment (more than 80 tons (72.6 tonnes) capacity).
Demand for new production equipment is driven by operational
efficiency and reliability, as well as environmental and regulatory
pressures, including noise, emissions and aging.
"The forecast is based on a number of factors, most
significantly economic growth in diverse areas of the world," said
Jim Edgar, regional director, Cargo Marketing for Asia. "Over the
long-term, global economic growth will drive demand for new,
high-value products as well as seasonal perishables that people
have become accustomed to enjoying."
More than 60 percent of the fleet additions will be in the
"medium" widebody category, with payloads of 40 to 80 tons -- plus
large freighters, increasing their share from 61 percent of the
current fleet to 65 percent of the 2027 fleet. Consequently, there
will be an increase in overall average freighter airplane payload,
consistent with prior years' forecasts.
"We expect several trends to continue -- dedicated freighters
will continue to provide an increasing proportion of air cargo
capacity, going to nearly 54 percent; and the industry will
continue to move to larger airplanes," said Edgar. "Additionally,
freighters will continue to comprise about 10 percent of the world
jetliner fleet during the forecast period."
The share of standard-body freighters (defined as less than 45
tons capacity single-aisle body width) will decrease from 39
percent to 35 percent over the next two decades.
In each of the past three years, Boeing has booked record
numbers of new production freighter orders, a total of 236
airplanes, dominated by the company's new 777F and 747-8F models,
as well as 56 orders for Boeing Converted Freighter models.
Boeing freighters continue to provide more than 90 percent of
the world's freighter capacity. Boeing offers a complete family of
production freighter airplanes, including 747-8F, 777F, 767F and
737-700C (convertible), as well the Boeing Converted Freighter line
-- 747-400BCF, 767-300BCF and MD-11BCF -- and smaller airplane
conversions through proprietary data licensees.
The Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2008/2009, a more detailed
study, will be issued at the 2008 International Air Cargo Forum and
Exposition in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in November.