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Mon, Oct 16, 2006

Forecast: Good Times Now, Great Times Ahead For BizAv

Honeywell Releases Annual Summary Of Market

The National Business Aviation Association conference is already in full swing... one day before the show opens its doors to the public. It looks to be a great show... and exhibitors and customers at the Orange County Convention Center Monday should be buoyed by an industry forecast that says good times are ahead for bizav.

In its annual industry forecast released Sunday, Honeywell Aerospace says 2006 is shaping up as a banner year for business jet deliveries, exceeding last year's shipments by 15 percent. Furthermore, 2007 should be even better... in fact, the industry may break the 1,000 mark for the first time in aviation history.

What's fueling the growth? Honeywell says international demand is at record levels... and several new models are available in nearly all segments of the business aviation market. Fractional ownership programs, jet card operators and charter services are also buying planes.

"Overall, the outlook is solid," said Honeywell's president of business and general aviation Rob Wilson, as reported in the Wichita Eagle. "It's a great time to be in business aviation."

Wilson added the increase in demand is expected to plauteau between 2009-2011... with another gain expected after that.

Most business-jet segments are expected to grow at a fairly balanced rate over the next five years... with long range jets (Global Express) projected to exceed 1,600 deliveries over the next 11 years. Medium-size planes (Citation Sovereign, Hawker 4000, LearJet 60) should account for about 30 percent of projected demand through 2011, with light jets (Citation Bravo, CJ3, LearJet 45) taking in 25 percent of the demand.

Deliveries of very light jets -- defined by Honeywell, if not the marketplace, as the Citation Mustang, CJ1 and CJ2, and Raytheon's Premier I -- are expected to increase dramatically in 2007, and average around 250 deliveries over the next 11 years. Meanwhile, "personal" jets such as the Eclipse 500 should account for approximately 4,000 deliveries in the next decade.

FMI: www.honeywell.com/aero, www.nbaa.org

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