Production To Rise Through 2011, According To Analysis
In its latest analysis on the aerospace industry, Forecast
International projects manufacturers of military fixed-wing
trainers will deliver 1,550 new aircraft during the 10-year period
covered by the study. The value of this production is projected to
reach an estimated $17.1 billion.
According to the study, "The Market for Military Fixed-Wing
Trainer Aircraft 2008-2017," more than half (784) of these 1,550
new trainers will be turboprop-powered trainers, with jet trainers
accounting for nearly all of the remainder (748). The market for
piston-powered military trainers is dying out and so will account
for only 18 aircraft during the forecast period.
Overall, annual production will reach a high of 212 units in
2009 before gradually falling throughout the remainder of the
forecast period to 105 units in 2017.
According to the report, this dramatic decline in production
stems from reduced demand, primarily due to two factors. First,
demand for trainers in the US military is ebbing. The US Navy
procured its last T-45 Goshawk, a jet trainer based on the BAE
Systems Hawk, in 2007. In addition, the US Air Force and Navy Joint
Primary Aircraft Training System (JPATS) program will be wrapping
up by the end of the forecast period. This program alone will
account for more than 60 percent of the unit production of the
fixed-wing military trainer market over the next decade. When the
program is completed, there will be nothing to replace it in terms
of market demand.
The second major cause of reduced demand for trainers is the
declining need to train new pilots. Many world air arms are
shrinking fighter and attack jet fleets, lowering demand for new
pilots and, in turn, trainers.
"Shrinking demand will lead to lower production levels
market-wide," said Douglas Royce, Aerospace Analyst at Forecast
International. "There are too many manufacturers chasing too small
a market, and the competition for even small contracts is going to
Based in Newtown, CT, Forecast International, Inc. is a leading
provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of
aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.