Production To Rise Through 2011, According To Analysis

In its latest analysis on the aerospace industry, Forecast International projects manufacturers of military fixed-wing trainers will deliver 1,550 new aircraft during the 10-year period covered by the study. The value of this production is projected to reach an estimated $17.1 billion. 

According to the study, "The Market for Military Fixed-Wing Trainer Aircraft 2008-2017," more than half (784) of these 1,550 new trainers will be turboprop-powered trainers, with jet trainers accounting for nearly all of the remainder (748). The market for piston-powered military trainers is dying out and so will account for only 18 aircraft during the forecast period.

Overall, annual production will reach a high of 212 units in 2009 before gradually falling throughout the remainder of the forecast period to 105 units in 2017. 

According to the report, this dramatic decline in production stems from reduced demand, primarily due to two factors. First, demand for trainers in the US military is ebbing. The US Navy procured its last T-45 Goshawk, a jet trainer based on the BAE Systems Hawk, in 2007. In addition, the US Air Force and Navy Joint Primary Aircraft Training System (JPATS) program will be wrapping up by the end of the forecast period. This program alone will account for more than 60 percent of the unit production of the fixed-wing military trainer market over the next decade. When the program is completed, there will be nothing to replace it in terms of market demand. 

The second major cause of reduced demand for trainers is the declining need to train new pilots. Many world air arms are shrinking fighter and attack jet fleets, lowering demand for new pilots and, in turn, trainers.  

"Shrinking demand will lead to lower production levels market-wide," said Douglas Royce, Aerospace Analyst at Forecast International. "There are too many manufacturers chasing too small a market, and the competition for even small contracts is going to be intense." 

Based in Newtown, CT, Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.

FMI: www.forecastinternational.com