Forecast International Says There's Light Ahead
In a new study entitled "The World
Market for Regional/Commuter Transport Aircraft," Forecast
International predicts that 4,112 regional aircraft, worth some
$88.2 billion, will be produced in the 10-year period spanning 2003
through 2012. The total includes 3,331 regional jets and 781
turboprop aircraft.
The study notes that production of regional aircraft production
declined in 2002, for the first time in three years. Forecast
International expects a further drop once final data are
available for 2003. However, the company anticipates a turnaround
in 2004, and projects that annual production will increase in both
2004 and 2005. Some drop-off is then expected in the following
three to four years, with growth again resuming by 2010.
"Many major carriers have been consolidating their route
structures since the present industry downturn began in 2001, and
regional airlines have been stepping into the void created by these
moves," said Forecast International senior aerospace analyst
Raymond Jaworowski.
Majors' Loss = Regionals' Gain
During the past couple of years, many majors have been placing
aircraft into storage, reducing numbers of flights, and abandoning
some routes altogether. Consequently, regional airlines have picked
up several routes that have been discarded by majors.
Production of regional aircraft will be buoyed by the growth of
regional airlines, including the expansion of small carriers into
underserved markets. These carriers will provide a customer base
for sales of 19-30 passenger turboprop aircraft. Overall, however,
turboprops are expected to lose ground over the next 10 years in
the sales battle with regional jets.
According to the study, the market for 70-120-passenger regional
aircraft is expected to be dynamic during the 10-year forecast
period, as traffic growth causes regional airlines to buy 70-120
seaters to replace smaller capacity transports. As passenger
traffic grows, airlines operating 50-passenger aircraft on many
routes may find that they do not have sufficient capacity to meet
demand and will need larger capacity aircraft to compete.
Who's likely to come out on
top?
In terms of unit production, Embraer is expected to be the
leader in the regional aircraft market during the 2003-2012 period
with a share of about 37 percent, on production of 1,531
aircraft. Bombardier is expected to be second with a 34
percent share, on forecast production of 1,398 regional
aircraft.
When the market is measured in value of production in US
dollars, Bombardier takes the top spot, with the value of its
10-year production expected to total $36.5 billion for a 41.3
percent share of the market. Embraer is second with an
estimated $32.8 billion and a share of just over 37
percent.