US Cuts Could Be Felt Worldwide, Says Study

Proposed cutbacks in the US Air Force's prized F/A-22 fighter program could have a major impact on both the scope and composition of the world market for fighter/attack/jet trainer aircraft over the next 10 years, according to a new Forecast International market analysis. USAF's planned inventory objective, already peeled back from 700+ to 277 units, will be further cut to 179 aircraft if the reductions stand. The service is expected to put up a spirited defense of its favorite program, and it may be that a compromise figure will be agreed upon.

"Two-hundred to 220 F/A-22s (above) may be a realistic target, but in light of the administration's determination to implement major budget cuts, we are basing our forecasts on 179 aircraft," said Aviation analyst Bill Dane.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter may also be impacted by future defense cuts, although Dane believes it is too early for a credible forecast of any such reductions.  Only two years ago the US Navy/Marine Corps reduced its planned F-35 buys from 1,089 to 680, but about a dozen other nations are participating in this program's development and a fair number are likely to order the F-35 (below). "Assuming the program moves ahead fairly smoothly, any additional cutbacks may undermine both its credibility and the US government's perceived commitment to it," Dane added.

Forecast International is projecting deliveries of 4,020 new combat aircraft and advanced jet trainers during the 2005-2014 period, a market estimated at nearly $158 billion. Rising international demand will result in production increases over the 10-year timeframe.

In Europe, both the multinational Eurofighter Typhoon (below) and the Dassault Rafale programs registered recent progress as long-delayed follow-on orders were finally placed for both types.  However, these projects are also expected to be influenced by budget-trimming measures, while their long-term prospects are being hindered by their lack of success in generating volume export orders.  Austria has come in for 18 Typhoons and Saudi Arabia has reportedly been mulling a BAE proposal for a 50-aircraft purchase.  Realistically, a Greek commitment to 60-90 Typhoons has effectively lapsed.

Brazil has postponed its major (up to 120 units) fighter competition, but India is shopping for as many as 126 new fighters and Singapore plans to select a finalist to fill its 20-aircraft requirement later this year. The winner of this contest could become the front-runner to meet Singapore's long-range need for up to 100 new combat aircraft.

China's several thousand Soviet-era aircraft are in urgent need of replacement. Chengdu is co-developing the FC-1 single-seat multirole fighter (below) with the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex.  China has thus far committed to a mere eight aircraft, while Pakistan is expected to purchase about 150 units.  Chengdu is also working on a more sophisticated J-10 model, and this is the heir-apparent to about 400 older J-7 fighters.  Low level J-10 production is reported to be under way.

Hindustan's Light Combat Aircraft may be on firmer ground now that a pair of prototypes has flown, but the program remains significantly behind schedule.  India has finally settled on a new advanced jet trainer, the BAE Hawk, and is now considering an indigenous Medium Combat Aircraft program.

Assuming it meets its performance and cost targets, the F-35 will be the one to beat on the international market during the next decade and beyond.  Eurofighter, Dassault, BAE/Saab and Sukhoi will clearly have their work cut out for them in the battle for new orders.

The Eurofighter consortium is projected to lead the market in terms of sales revenues, to be trailed, respectively, by Lockheed Martin, Boeing, the Lockheed/Boeing F/A-22 team, Dassault Aviation, and Russia's Sukhoi.

FMI: www.forecast1.com