Despite Current Economy, Growth Will Return, Company Says
Boeing is looking down the road 20
years, and sees a $3.2 trillion market for new commercial
airplanes. That prediction takes into account the industry's
near-term realities, including a global economic recession,
declining passenger and cargo traffic, and unpredictable fuel
prices. The Boeing 2009 Current Market Outlook (CMO), which was
released in London Thursday, foresees a market for 29,000 new
commercial passenger and freighter airplanes by 2028. That's 400
fewer planes than had been expected in last year's
outlook.
The report, now in its 45th year of public release and widely
regarded as the most comprehensive and respected analysis of the
commercial aviation market, reflects the extremely dynamic
situation the industry is facing today.
"While the commercial aviation industry is facing a significant
downturn, it is cyclic and has a long history of declines and
upturns," said Randy Tinseth, vice president Marketing, Boeing
Commercial Airplanes. "Over the past 30 years, through both tough
and good times, traffic growth has averaged more than 5 percent per
year, demonstrating the resilience of the market. The long-term
outlook points to the next 20 years as being a time in which we see
fundamental underlying factors supporting a strong need for new
airplanes."
Boeing analysis shows that over time, the commercial airplanes
market will stabilize and economic growth will return. Boeing
expects passenger traffic to grow at an average rate of 4.9 percent
each year for the next 20 years. Demand globally remains strong for
new, more efficient commercial airplanes in response to high fuel
prices, aging fleets and environmental concerns. The U.S. and
European markets will see more replacement airplanes as
less-efficient jets are retired. Robust growth in China, the Middle
East, India and other emerging markets with dynamic populations and
growing incomes will lead toward a more balanced airplane demand
worldwide.
Boeing predicts that airlines will grow by responding to their
passengers' preference for more flight choices, lower fares and
direct access to a wider range of destinations. This means that
they will focus on offering more flights using more efficient
airplanes, rather than on using significantly larger airplanes.
Single-aisle airplanes will have the largest market share (67
percent) in raw numbers, driven by the large European and North
American domestic markets and growth in local markets in Asia
Pacific.
Twin-aisle airplanes will have the largest market share by
investment dollars, with 40 percent of demand coming from Asia
Pacific and 23 percent from Europe.
In fact, the growing Asia Pacific region will command the
largest market in both units and value with 31 percent (8,960) of
the units and 36 percent of the value ($1.13 trillion). Air travel
to, from and within the Asia Pacific region will grow from a 32
percent share of the world air travel market to 41 percent over the
20-year period.