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Success Or Failure Of Falcon 9 Could Have An Enormous Impact On Space Program

Commercial Launches Pivotal To Obama's NASA Plan

When SpaceX launches the first Falcon 9 Rocket from Cape Canaveral, possibly as early as next month, the veracity of President Obama's plan to outsource much of the space program to commercial entities will possibly be riding on its shoulders.

NASA has invested $200 million in "seed money" to assist SpaceX in developing the Falcon 9, a nine-engine rocket that the company hopes will soon be shuttling cargo, and eventually crew, to the ISS. The Los Angeles Times reports that the agency's contract with SpaceX is potentially worth about $1.6 billion for 12 cargo flights in the coming years.

However, SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk says even if the initial launch has some problems, it won't spell the end of the company or its efforts. "Our success is vital to the success of the American space program and servicing the space station," he said. "However, we do not need to be successful on the first flight. It's rare for a new vehicle to have 100% success right away." Musk said he thinks if the company can boost a payload into orbit in four tries, it will be considered a success. "At a certain point, we need to show the world we can put the Falcon 9 into orbit," he said.

Falcon 9

The SpaceX Falcon 1, a smaller, single-engine rocket, didn't make it to orbit until the 4th try.

X Prize Foundation chairman Peter Diamandis says there are a lot of companies who have business plans based on the success of the Falcon 9. Musk says his company can launch a rocket for around $100 million, while a typical shuttle mission costs the U.S. Government about $1 billion. "It represents a price point that numerous commercial ventures use to make their argument," Diamandis told the paper. "The Obama administration has seen this, and that's why they've decided to go this direction in their proposed budget."

The Falcon 9 is standing upright at Cape Canaveral's Space Launch Complex 40 (see above), with engine testing planned for this week. When it is launched, it will become the first new rocket launched from the Cape since 2002. 

FMI: www.spacex.com

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