Forecast1 Sees $13.8 Billion Market Through 2014

"Air-to-air missiles may have played only a minor role in the recent fighting in Iraq, but they remain crucial to any wartime effort for achieving air superiority," says Larry Dickerson, Missile Analyst for Forecast International. According to Dickerson, "The lack of headline-grabbing aerial engagements in the skies over Iraq does not mean air-to-air missiles have lost their appeal."

Air-to-air missiles will generate $13.8 billion in revenues over the next 10 years for the world’s top defense firms. More than 51,000 missiles will be produced through 2014.

"The leading air-to-air missile firms will be Raytheon and MBDA," said Dickerson. "Sales of the AIM-9X Sidewinder and AIM-120 AMRAAM will generate $3.4 billion for Raytheon. MBDA is not far behind with about $2.89 billion in projected revenue from air-to-air missiles," he said. MBDA’s product line includes the MICA and ASRAAM.

In the future, MBDA will begin offering the next-generation Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile. The firm hopes to break Raytheon’s grip on the medium-range segment of this market. Raytheon’s AMRAAM has out sold all its competitors.

Raytheon and MBDA account for 46 percent of all sales in the air-to-air missile market. If certain non-competitive firms are eliminated from the rankings, the market share of these firms jumps to 64 percent.

According to Dickerson, "Companies located in China, Japan, Taiwan and India sell missiles almost exclusively to their own governments. They may produce large quantities of missiles but they win very few export orders."

A problem for Europe concerns fighter aircraft sales, which spur purchases of air-to-air missiles. "The United States is expected to sell a far greater number of combat fighters than Europe in the future," Dickerson said. These larger sales give the US an advantage in the air-to-air missile market. Also, purchasers of US-built aircraft do not always have the option of arming them with European-made missiles. "MBDA must be able to offer the option of arming American fighters with its missiles if it is to have any chance of challenging Raytheon’s dominance of this market," said Dickerson.

FMI: www.forecast1.com