Declines Steady Since Change To Plastic Certificate Format

In 2016, the FAA changed federal guidelines that required the issuance of a plastic student pilot certificate, rather than simply using the paper third-class medical certificate as the student pilot certificate, a practice in place for years.

One of the effects seems to be a drop in the number of student pilot certificates issued by the FAA, according to instructor Jason Blair. Writing on his blog, Blair says that the number of student pilot certificates issued on a monthly basis decreased significantly from what were previously very stable monthly averages over recent years. On average, the decrease has been greater than 40% per month.

But, Blair says, it is not known if the completion rate will be higher, as the new student pilot certificates never expire. He also points out that the numbers of medical certificates may have been artificially inflated, as student pilots needed to renew their medical certificates ever two years if they were over 40, or every five years if they were under 40. 

Alternately, Blair writes, it may also be a broader indication that the number of people pursuing pilot certificates is actually decreasing. "If this is the case it is yet another indicator of a future constriction in the supply of pilots to the aviation industry," he says.

According to the FAA:

As of April 2016, combined medical certificate and pilot certificates are no longer issued, and there will be no expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. Designated examiners, FAA inspectors, and Certified Flight Instructors (CFIs) process student pilot certificates, and FAA issues the new plastic certificate. There may be some seasonal backlogs, which result in monthly fluctuations especially during the first year of implementations.

FMI: Original Report