Retirement Takes Toll In Both Cockpit And Control Tower
If aviation consultants like Stuart
Klaskin are to be believed, aviation will stumble right out of the
economic bad times and right into a shortage of both pilots and
controllers.
"I wouldn't go so far as to say it's going to be dangerous," the
Miami consultant told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. "But it's one
of these situations that needs to be understood now, and acted upon
now."
ANN has already reported extensively on the
looming shortage of controllers. By 2015, 73-percent
of the nation's 14,934 controllers now in towers will be eligible
to retire. At the same time, about 25,000 pilots will hit the
60-year old silk while airlines will be trying to hire an
additional 50,000. So say the consultants.
How to deal with the pending shortages? Delay, delay delay.
"An argument can be made that these people are being forced to
retire when they're at the peak of their experience," Klaskin told
the South Florida paper. Right now, the mandatory retirement age
for controllers is 56. Pilots have to leave the cockpit at 60.
The FAA says it's ramping up to hire another 12,000 controllers
over the next ten years. But the demand for pilots is expanding so
fast that the Sun-Sentinel reports some airlines are actually
relaxing their hiring standards to fill both left- and
right-seats.
"The inexperienced pilot, whoever he may be, is more accident
prone than the experienced pilot," said aviation safety consultant
Robert Breiling.
Well, hold on there. Most airlines will tell you that even
though the number of flight hours required to sit in the right seat
has dropped to 1,000 in some cases, those less-experienced pilots
are paired with much more experienced captains. But Breiling, a
former Pan Am pilot, says turnover at some of the regional carriers
is so high that even the greenest of first officers stands a good
chance of becoming pilot-in-command within two years -- or
less.
Pshaw, says Kit Darby, who is a
frequent contributor to ANN on subjects of pilot hiring. "You may
hire on as a co-pilot and a year or two later, you're a captain,"
he told the Sun-Sentinel, speaking specifically about regional
carriers. "Once pilots are in their jobs, working as professionals,
you won't see a problem with safety," he said. "The system prevents
any low time pilots from being in charge."
Still, nobody's arguing with the numbers and the plain truth
seems to be, the new pilots and the new controllers are going to
have to come from somewhere. So... where?