Global Freighter Fleet Will Double In Number Of Airplanes
Boeing tells ANN that the global air
cargo market will continue its growth patterns of the past few
years, with strong 20-year growth, according to the Current Market
Outlook (CMO) 2006. This pattern will lead to a doubling of the
world freighter fleet from 1,789 to 3,563 airplanes, both numbers
slightly up from the previous forecast.
This growth, accounting for expected airplane retirements of
1,209 airplanes, will result in a total of 2,983 airplanes added to
the freighter fleet by 2025, according to the annual CMO, which was
released earlier this month prior to the Farnborough Air Show.
“Relatively stable total fleet numbers over the past five
years are a bit misleading since strong deliveries have been offset
by a roughly equal number of retirements,” said Jim Edgar,
regional director, Cargo Marketing for Asia.
“Rising fuel prices apply replacement pressure on older
inefficient fleets, contributing to unprecedented freighter
interest while we experience minimal negative impact upon traffic
levels.”
Most of these additions – nearly 62 percent – will
be in the widebody category (medium widebody plus large
freighters). Widebody freighters with a capacity of 40 tons or more
will increase in share from 50 percent of the current fleet to 64
percent of the 2025 fleet. Consequently, there will be an increase
in overall average freighter airplane payload. These findings are
consistent with prior years’ forecasts.
“The total number of airplanes in the freighter fleet
forecast is only slightly higher than last year’s
totals,” said Edgar. “However, the move to large
freighters is already taking hold as the 2005 fleet is only 50
percent standard-body freighters, versus 53 percent for the same
segment in 2004. The underlying trend towards accelerated widebody
growth, encompassing such airplanes as the 747 freighter family and
the 777 Freighter, is masked by this retirement of older
standard-body freighters.”
Standard-body freighters are defined in the forecast as having
less than 50 tons capacity and the body width of single-aisle
passenger airplanes. The share of these freighters will decrease
from 50 percent to 36 percent over the next two decades. In many
cases, operators such as express carriers prefer medium widebodies
as a replacement for retiring standard-body freighters.
Freighters, as a share of the global jetliner fleet, will remain
at about 10 percent during the forecast period, and by 2025,
freighters of all sizes will provide more than half of the
world’s total air cargo capacity, a slight increase from
today and consistent with last year’s forecast.
Three-quarters of the freighter fleet additions will come from
modified passenger and combi airplanes. The remaining airplanes
entering the fleet, about 766, will be new-production freighters.
Although new airplanes will make up a minority of the total world
freighter fleet, they dominate the large-size category (widebody
freighters of more than 80 tons capacity) with many airlines
preferring their technical advantages, reliability, and fuel
efficiency. The value of all new freighters totals $169 billion in
current U.S. dollars.
In 2005, Boeing received a record 113 firm orders for production
and converted freighters and brought to market two new production
freighters – the 777F and 747-8F.
Currently, Boeing provides more than 90 percent of the world's
freighter capacity. This percentage is expected to remain stable,
owing to the preference for larger Boeing production and converted
airplanes. Boeing offers a complete family of production freighter
airplanes, including 747-8F, 747-400F, 777F, 767F and 737-700C
(convertible). In addition, Boeing offers Boeing Converted
Freighters (BCF) – 747-400BCF or 767-300BCF, as well as an
MD-11 Freighter conversion program and 757-200 and 767-200 Special
Freighters through proprietary data licensees.
Boeing will issue a more detailed forecast – World Air
Cargo Forecast 2006/2007 – at the 2006 International Air
Cargo Forum and Exposition in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, in
September.