Forecast International predicts huge growth for the market over
the next decade
More unmanned air
vehicles will be sold in the next 10 years than in the previous
four decades combined, according to a recent analysis by Forecast
International. "The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Through 2013" predicts that the world’s military forces will
spend $11 billion procuring reconnaissance/surveillance unmanned
air vehicles (UAVs) through 2013.
"The US-led invasion of Iraq, as well as military operations in
Afghanistan, has helped to raise the profile of unmanned air
vehicles to heights undreamed of just a few years ago," said Larry
Dickerson, senior unmanned vehicle analyst at Forecast
International. "Program managers in the United States have
said for the first time they are actually getting more money than
requested. Around the world, planned funding for UAVs is
skyrocketing and a greater number of production orders are being
awarded than ever in the history of this market," Dickerson
said.
More than 6,000 UAVs are
expected to be purchased over the next 10 years by countries in
every region of the world. "Our analysis does not include
funding for RDT&E and operations and maintenance, but as
procurement increases money spent in these areas is also likely to
increase," said Dickerson.
The Pentagon plans to spend billions on UAV research and
procurement through 2013, which is helping US defense firms to
dominate this market. US companies will control more than 50
percent of this market’s total value and produce far more air
vehicles, ground control stations and payloads than any of their
competitors. The leading firms will be Northrop Grumman
(maker of the Global Hawk) and General Atomics (which provides the
Predator).
While Europe cannot hope to match this figure, the continent
could spend over EUR1 billion on procurement and a similar (or
possibly higher) figure on research and development. Europe
is determined to expand its UAV fleet. Presently, European
companies control just 5 percent of this market’s value, but
this share is expected to grow in the future as new contracts are
issued. Recently, Thales was selected as the prime contractor
for the Watchkeeper UAV program. This contract is worth over
$1 billion.
"Operation Iraqi Freedom and its counterpart in Afghanistan have
drawn more attention to unmanned air vehicles than 30 years of
lobbying by their supporters," said Dickerson. "Yet despite
all the attention and increases in funding, the UAV market is still
in its infancy, with a truly massive expansion in procurement not
expected until after 2010," he said. "But be warned, a
specific path for this market has not been set and the enthusiasm
that UAVs currently enjoy could dissipate as quickly as it arose,"
said Dickerson.