As Always, the Furnace of Battle Winnows Out Impurities

Ukrainians reportedly aren't too impressed with US drone tech, according to rumor, finding it more costly, finicky, and unreliable compared to Chinese equivalents.

The Ukrainian battlespace has become the world's premier combat laboratory for anyone in the military industry, with all manner of funding and procurement routes to get untested-but-promising gear up to the frontlines of the most high-intensity combat allied armies have seen in years. The result? Cheap drones that can stay in contact with their command structure rule the day, allowing simple, effective placement of small ordnance on target, scouting from a safe distance, or intelligence gathering to form an accurate picture of the field from minute to minute. Unfortunately, gossip seems to point to the fact that US-made kit is just a little overpriced and behind the power curve, being particularly susceptible to the rapid pace of electronic warfare happening on the cutting edge.

A refreshing think piece from The Journal contained a handful of interesting quotes from a few stakeholders stateside, speaking candidly about what the industry needs to focus on as it continues to evolve. Skydio CEO Adam Bry admitted that "the general reputation for every class of U.S. drone in Ukraine is that they don’t work as well as other systems." Refreshingly, Bry didn't exempt his own products from that equation either, noting that Skydio's gear is "not a very successful platform on the front lines."

Of course, all that info is dearly appreciated by those trying to anticipate and equip for a 4th-generation war, though every lesson is purchased with the blood of Ukrainian allies. They've been pretty unimpressed by US gear, with some off-record saying they found most American drones fragile and extremely vulnerable to GPS jamming and signal interference. Some even decry the overly optimistic performance specs, telling reporters that yankee drones don't go as fast, or as far, with as much payload as they promise.

Georgii Dubynskyi, Ukraine's deputy minister of digital transformation said that the stuff "flying today won't be able to fly tomorrow," noting that the allies "have to adapt to the emerging technologies quickly. The innovation cycle in this war is very short." He noted that his side goes through about 10,000 UAVs each month, a number that would rapidly deplete the international aid coffers if they were all primo yankee tech.

It's understandable, considering the development cycle that produced much of the premium, enterprise-level drone equipment in the US today: Many have their roots, like Skydio's, in older standards established years ago, when the specter of war remained nebulous. Add in ITAR complications and import/export restrictions, and it makes more sense why US manufacturers are lagging in the race to market. That's just the hardware, too. On the software side of things, US drone makers offering products for military use have to jump through hoops just to push updates - the exact process needed to stay abreast of changing ECM on the front. 

China simply has a deeper electronics manufacturing base to draw on, and their rock-bottom labor costs allow them to slash prices to the bone - and that's exactly what the Ukrainians love about them. They've even done one better, taking development and manufacture back home using Chinese components, putting Ukraine on the cutting edge (apparently) of running seaborne suicide drones. A few notable victories, filmed from a variety of angles, have shown Ukraine's ocean drones creating headaches for Russia's Black Sea Fleet, raising eyebrows Stateside and keeping US Naval planners up at night with fresh implications.

Nevertheless, US manufacturers are doing their homework. Skydio's CEO said his teams have been to Ukraine more than a dozen times to interface with end users, leveraging all that know-how in their new Skydio X10. The X10 is more modular and adaptable than any previous Skydio unit, with improved automation to rely on when it loses its C2 signal - and astute frequency management to lessen the chances it loses it to begin with. Top it off with a carbon fiber chassis and a propulsion system that stays quiet up even at a 45 mph cruise, and it’s clear they’re putting that know-how to work.

"It is critical for Skydio, and I think the U.S. drone industry at large, that we make X10 succeed at scale on the battlefield in Ukraine," Bry concluded. "There's no alternative. As a country, we can't miss on this."

FMI: www.skydio.com