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Thu, Mar 15, 2007

Is The Administration 'Stacking The Deck' At The FAA Forecast Conference?

ANN Real-Time "On-Site" Report

While no one expected hugs and kisses between all the participants at the 32nd Annual FAA Forecast Conference; many attendees were none-the-less surprised to see strong hints of less than impartial conduct as a pivotal panel composed of GA, Airline and government officials started off the morning's discussions.

A short dissertation by the FAA's Nan Shellabarger, their Director of Aviation Policy and Plans, set the mixed tone as she noted a number of areas of growth, prospects of growth and a cautiously optimistic tone. Shellabarger went so far as to opine that the Commercial Airlines experienced a 3.7% growth rate in 2006 and should expect to see about 3.5% from here on out. She also predicted that overall airline passenger numbers should double (over the 2000 figures) by 2025.

Unfortunately; Ms. Shellabarger noted an alarming 2.7% drop in GA student starts during 2006... a decline that she termed, "a little worrisome."

But... it was the first panel that seemed to set up the battles for the rest of the day. That discussion, entitled, "Next Generation Air Transportation System Financing Reform & the Future Aviation System," was "Moderated" by Jeff Shane, Under Secretary of Transportation for Policy, U.S. Department of Transportation (pictured below).

The panelists included Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association; Ed Bolen, President and Chief Executive Officer, National Business Aviation Association; Greg Principato, President, Airports Council International-North America; Dan Elwell, Assistant Administrator for Policy, Planning, and Environment, FAA; and Holly E. Woodruff Lyons, Republican Staff Director and Senior Counsel, House Aviation Subcommittee, US House of Representatives.

The last time ANN checked, we were under the impression that one of the duties of a Moderator was to preside impartially over a discussion of the issues of the day. If that's the case, Shane's crack about his VLJ-related concerns over a "sky darkened by dentists" flying such airplanes, seemed way off the mark. This clearly displeased Bolen and thereafter, as May continued some of the ATA rhetoric promoted in the past, Bolen took the time to correct some of May's statements... even to the point of getting May's acknowledgement of his corrections. Particularly troublesome was May's continued insistence that every country in the world treats all airplanes (in the NAS) the same way, unlike the US... which was put down quite readily, once again, by Bolen.

However; after observing an opening panel with only one GA representative and little support coming from the governmental reps, we fear that the day seems set for continued anti-GA reaction from the current administration and little opportunity for a proper clearing of the air.

ANN is at the site of the Forecast conference and will be reporting further on his event throughout the day.

FMI: www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2007-2020/

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