System capacity -- the overall yardstick for how busy aviation
is both domestically and internationally -- will increase 2.8
percent this year, following last year’s decline of 0.2
percent.
In domestic markets, capacity is expected to increase 2.1
percent, as network carrier capacity stabilizes and low cost
carriers continue to grow. Regional carrier capacity, which depends
in large part on feed from the legacy carriers, is forecast to
increase 2.9 percent. Revenue passenger miles will increase 2.8
percent while enplanements are expected to increase faster, up 3.6
percent.
The average size of domestic aircraft is expected to increase
this year by 0.3 seats to 120.5 seats. Network carriers are
reconfiguring their domestic fleets to increase the number of
seats, while low-cost carriers with relativley smaller aircraft
sizes continue to grow at a faster rate. The result is a slight
decrease in overall aircraft size for the mainline carrier group in
aggregate. While demand for 70–90 seat aircraft continues to
increase, we expect that the number of 50 seat regional jets in
service will continue to fall, increasing the average regional
aircraft in 2007 by 0.8 seats to 50.8 seats per mile. Domestic
passenger trip length is expected to decrease by 7 miles in 2007 as
network carrier trip length remains steady while trip length in the
growing low-cost carrier sector falls.
General aviation is expected to receive a boost from the
certification of Very Light Jets (VLJ’s). These relatively
inexpensive twin-engine microjets may redefine "on-demand" air taxi
service. Next year, we project that 350 microjets will join the
fleet, with that figure growing to 400-500 per year through 2020.
Partly as a result of the influx of new microjets, the number of
general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of
3.4 percent per year through 2020.
The FAA continues to be optimistic about the future. Since 2000,
the industry has been battered with 9/11, the spread of the Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and concerns about pandemics, the
bankruptcy of 4 network carriers, and record high fuel prices. An
important yardstick, though, remains the number of passengers that
traveled. Last year, that number was a record 741 million. U.S.
commercial aviation remains on track to carry one billion
passengers by 2015. In addition, international traffic is growing
at much faster rates than domestic traffic.
For the first time since 2000, the industry returned to
profitability as capacity decreases coupled with fare increases
offset the impact from rising fuel prices. We see the industry
returning to a period of sustained profitability buoyed by a strong
national economy. In the long run, a healthy industry, inexpensive
tickets, and increasing demand for seats aboard aircraft should
bode well for consumers.
Unfortunate... ANN/SportPlane Resource Guide Adds To Cautionary Advisories
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