Forecast International Sees Dynamic Growth for RJ
Production
In its latest study, "The World
Market for Regional/Commuter Transport Aircraft," Forecast
International projects that a total of 3,728 regional aircraft will
be produced in the 10-year period 2004 to 2013. The value of this
production, in constant 2004 U.S. dollars, is estimated at $84.4
billion. The forecast production total includes both regional jets
and regional turboprops; specifically, 3,041 regional jets are
forecast, plus 687 turboprops.
In the new study, Forecast International predicts that 387
regional aircraft will be built in 2004. Annual production is
expected to drop to 371 units in 2005, and then fluctuate within a
range of 360-380 units for the remainder of the forecast timeframe.
Within these numbers, however, Forecast International expects that
the mix of regional aircraft built each year will include a
progressively higher proportion of larger-capacity aircraft. Thus,
the number of delivered seats will rise significantly over the
course of the next 10 years.
Production of 70-120 passenger regional jets is expected to be
particularly dynamic, both during the 10-year forecast period and
(perhaps even more so) beyond. This class of regional aircraft has
seen the rapid proliferation of several new models. Bombardier and
Embraer, for instance, have both recently introduced new aircraft
of at least 90-passenger capacities: Bombardier with the 90-seat
CRJ 900 and Embraer with the 94-108 seat 190 and the 106-118
passenger 195.
Even the large commercial transport manufacturers have gotten
into the act. Boeing is currently producing the 717-200, while
Airbus has begun production of the A318. Both in terms of operating
characteristics and in terms of the type of aircraft with which
they compete for sales, the 717-200 and the A318 are arguably
regional aircraft.
Bombardier also recently announced plans to develop an all-new,
100-plus passenger aircraft family called the CSeries. The CSeries
represents an attempt by Bombardier to not only expand its product
line into the important 100-120 passenger regional jet market but
also, with the proposed 130-135 CSeries model, to directly compete
with such aircraft as the Airbus A319 and the Boeing
737-600/700.
Meanwhile, regional turboprops have been losing the battle for
sales to regional jets. Various market forces are working against
turboprops. According to Forecast International senior aerospace
analyst Raymond Jaworowski, "Whether right or wrong, the perception
is widespread that travelers want to fly in jets rather than
turboprops."
The Forecast International study projects that the leaders in
the regional aircraft market will be Embraer and Bombardier.
Embraer is forecast to produce 1,426 regional jets, a market share
of 38.3 percent. Bombardier, which builds both jets and turboprops
for the regional market, is projected to build 1,210 regional
aircraft, a share of 32.5 percent. No other company is projected to
have a unit production share exceeding 10 percent.
When the market is measured in value of production in constant
dollars, Embraer again leads the way with forecast production value
of $32.7 billion, a market share of 38.8 percent. Bombardier
production is estimated at $30 billion, a 35.6 percent share.