By ANN Contributor Thomas P. Turner
This past year, as always, presented events, some good, some
not-so-good for general aviation. Focusing first on the
“worst” of 2005 and then highlighting some of the
“best” would undoubtedly include many common items
among those who respond to ANN’s call.
So I’ll try to drill down to some items that are bubbling
just below the surface of airspace penetrations and user fees and
crashes, but nonetheless threaten great peril or show great promise
for personal aviation.
Discouraging Words
The headlines blare a triple threat of airspace restrictions,
increases costs and a declining pilot and aircraft base. Read
the fine print, however, and you’ll find these emerging, and
troubling, trends:
- The Notice of Proposed
Rulemaking (NPRM) for the Washington, D.C. “National Security
Airspace” makes it clear that aviation policymaking is
slipping from control of the Federal Aviation Administration (where
relations with personal aviation are tenuous enough) and into the
purview of the Department of Homeland Security. An unchecked change
in regulatory intent from “safety” to
“security” threatens to stifle personal aviation beyond
even the concerns of airspace around our Capitol or other
metropolitan areas.
- The vast majority of our personal aviation fleet was certified
under Civil Air Regulation 3 (CAR 3). These rules did not require
manufacturers to determine fatigue life or damage tolerance
characteristics -- it simply wasn’t considered that these
airframes would be flying 30 to 40 years, or even half a century or
more later. 2005 revisions to FAA Advisory Circular 23-13a
and similar documents make it clear the FAA wants to retroactively
require fatigue and damage tolerance studies on airplanes certified
under CAR 3 for us to continue flying aging aircraft…and
that they expect owners and “type clubs” to foot the
bill. This unfunded Federal mandate would be out of financial reach
for all but the very largest of type-specific owners’
organizations.
- While production of new
and exciting piston airplanes from companies like Cirrus and
Diamond and Adam Aircraft are cause for genuine celebration, output
from legacy companies like Piper and Beech continues at a bare
trickle. Cessna is an unusual case with encouraging production
numbers and Mooney (right) is the “odd man out,” with
low production totals that nonetheless represent a heroic recovery
from recent, perilous times. Even with these exceptions, however,
continued parts and mechanic support of decades of aging airplanes
and out-of-production types that are the backbone of the fleet is
in serious danger as legacy companies debate the economics of
continued manufacture.
And Now the Good News
There is cause, however, for optimism based on some events of
2005. Reaction to the Washington DC NPRM by Transportation
Secretary Norman Mineta and others in the Government show that they
are at least willing to listen to personal aviation’s
concerns (with monstrous thanks to AOPA for spearheading this
effort). Our exciting times include plans for commercial
spaceflight and the imminent certification of Very Light Jets
(VLJs) that led to what was arguably the best EAA Convention ever,
and hopefully will have at least some trickle-down benefit for
personal aviation.
Beyond the headlines there is good reason for (guarded)
optimism:
- The proliferation of free or low-cost on-line training, such as
seminars from NASA and the AOPA Air Safety Foundation, make
available to all pilots the level of expertise formerly available
only to the wealthiest owners and professional pilots.
- NASA, the FAA and industry’s demonstration of concepts
for the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS), held last June
in Danville, Virginia, showed how SATS research has already
contributed to “glass cockpit” technologies now gracing
even some Light Sport Aircraft (LSA) panels. If significant
obstacles of VLJ certification, training, and insurability, and
public acceptance of cost and “very little airplanes”
as a replacement for highway business travel are overcome, the most
promising result of the SATS project for personal aviation will be
an emphasis on preserving and even improving the network of small,
community airports.
- U.S. introduction of
the diesel-powered DA42 Twin Diamond (right) foretells acceptance
of jet-fuel engines for personal aircraft, critical in facing the
anticipated end of leaded fuel production in 2010. Other
options for meeting this challenge, including computerized ignition
control that has already been demonstrated to permit operation of
big-bore engines on automotive fuel, are equally promising but the
cost of retrofitting these to existing engines might well near the
total value of the airplane.
- Creation of the Sport Pilot industry promises to provide
opportunity for pilots who likely could not otherwise afford to own
and fly airplanes, although it remains to be seen if this new class
will develop new pilots or merely appeal to existing pilots who
cannot afford “traditional” airplanes or who are afraid
they may not pass FAA medical requirements. It’s also
uncertain if Sport Pilot will be more successful as a lower-cost
“lead-in” program for Private and higher certification
than was the Recreational Pilot initiative more than a decade
ago.
There is therefore much cause for concern, and more than a
glimmer of hope, for personal aviation in 2006. Beneath the
headlines there is a dark undercurrent of troubling trends and
grey-to-white reasons to rejoice for the future. The FAA tells
us that complacency is one of the “five hazardous
attitudes” that conspire to lead the unwary pilot to a
crash. Complacency, also, is the greatest hazard we as an
industry face. Overcome our own inertia and there is great
hope for personal aviation’s future.
(Thomas P. Turner is an aviation instructor, author and
lecturer living in Wichita, KS. Tom also contributes weekly
Aero-Tech segments for ANN's Aero-Casts, and will soon be bringing
his daily Aero-Tips to ANN readers.)