Used Jets Purchases, BizJet Usage, Flight Hours Show Increase

Honeywell released its 30th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, forecasting up to 7,400 new business jet deliveries totalling $238 billion from 2022 to 2031, a 1% increase in deliveries from the same forecast a year ago.

2021’s surveyed business jet operators show a 12% increase in their plans to purchase a used jet, accounting for 800 additional business aircraft. Heath Patrick, president of Americas Aftermarket for Honeywell Aerospace said, “The increased demand for used jets is estimated at more than 6,500 units over the next five years, putting pressure on an already record low inventory and driving additional demand for new jets. Our latest operator survey results support continued private jet usage growth, as more than 65% of respondents anticipate increased business jet usage in 2022.” 

Interestingly, the recovery in business aviation seems much faster than other segments of a quixotic economy. “Despite the ongoing challenges presented by the pandemic, flight hours have recovered and grown beyond pre-pandemic levels.” Patrick said. The unexpected health in the industry is described in the report as “minimal ongoing COVID-19 impact in 2021”. 9 out of 10 operators said their plans were not postponed, and nearly 100% of respondents said they had not cancelled or planned to cancel delivery on a new aircraft. Total flight hours trends have increased almost 50% over 2020, and currently point to a 5% increase over pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Survey respondents seem unphased, 65% reporting they expect more frequent business jet usage next near. 

The report also includes a breakdown by region. In North America, 63% of new jet demand will come from operators over the next five years, down 1 percentage point over last year’s survey.

At least 13% of the fleet is expected to be replaced or supplemented with a new jet purchase, with 35% of the operators responding they will buy in the next first two years of a five-year window. 

European operators saw a 5 point decrease year over year, more heavily impacted by the effects of border regulation uncertainty. Replacement and expansion plans are the highest for used aircraft, equivalent to 34% of their fleets, up 6 points from 2020. Global share of demand is down to 16%, from 18% last year. 

Asia Pacific operators plan to replace at least 15% of their jet fleets in the coming five years, up 1% from last year. Operators also report expansion intentions for the first time in three years. The region will represent a 12% share of global new jet purchases through 2026. 

FMI: www.honeywell.com/