And That's a Big Improvement. Sheesh.

Losing over ¾ of a billion dollars in three months is actually good news for D.I.P. US Airways. That alone says volumes about how terrible business is, for the industry. US Airways still maintains it will emerge from Chapter 11 by the end of March, and points to remarkable progress, as evidenced by its recently-reported $794 million quarterly loss, as evidence that it's doing the right things.

A year ago, the fourth quarter losses were around $1.16 billion.

The entire year's results were similarly "encouraging:" the airline lost $1.65 billion, 23% of revenues; in 2001, the figure was $2.1 billion (more than 25% of that year's 18% larger sales volume).

Smaller, leaner, and a whole lot smarter, US Airways is ready this year to bank nearly $2 billion in savings it plans to realize, largely from renegotiations of labor contracts. If one does the math the way the airline does, that points to profitability after emergence from the court's protection.

All plans, however, are dependent on forecasters' being able to get close to the future's economic reality. Although everybody is planning, to some extent, on a war in the middle east, the actual scope of that war is anyone's guess. If the forecasters are right, we'll stick with these predictions. If the uncertainty remains (in other words, if there is no war, but its threat continues), or if commonly-held ideas of the size of the coming war are far off-base, the game could quickly go in a whole new direction.

FMI: www.usairways.com