Kit Darby Publishes Pilot Demand Forecast in the ‘Big Four’ Airlines

Aviation consultant and so-called pilot hiring expert Kit Darby recently published his pilot demand forecast for the ‘big four’ airlines in the US, and the hundreds of pilots patiently awaiting class dates may be happy with the results. The “conservative” analysis expects American, Delta, Southwest, and United to take in 27,485 new pilots in the next five years.

The breakdown gives United the gold medal for most aggressive hiring, with more than 8,300 pilots needed by 2030. Delta and American trail behind with about 6,100 and 6,500 hires, while Southwest comes in with more than 6,400. The Southwest figure represents a massive 47 percent growth, aligning with the airline’s sizable aircraft order book.

United’s plans are fueled by its commitment to long-haul expansion, shown by the eight new cities it added across three continents it added in 2025. This requires not just more airplanes but also more pilots per airplane.

Darby clarified that these numbers are a sort of worst-case scenario for up-and-coming pilots, explaining that the forecasted retirements do not consider the fact that not every pilot remains at work to age 65. Medical losses and early departures thin the ranks by about half a percent annually for younger aviators and up to three percent as they approach retirement.

Another important point to consider is that the data assumes that most of the airplanes on order will actually arrive on time. Recent production slowdowns, supply chain bottlenecks, and tariff disputes make that assumption look optimistic. Still, the majors tend to get their airplanes sooner or later, even if not exactly on schedule.

The main takeaway is that hiring isn’t drying up anytime soon. The majors may juggle numbers and fleet structure, but the math is simple: more planes and more retirements equal more pilots.

FMI: www.kitdarby.com