“We’re about mid-way in the 2010 U.S. Sport Aviation
Expo, and we’re starting to see a process of maturation, both
positive and negative that this industry was heading for and
frankly desperately needs. Let’s talk a little bit
about the realities of the LSA industry right now, especially
coming out of the economy we had in 2009.
There’s a hundred and some-odd designs available right
now, some built in significant volume and some built one or two at
a time and may have three or four a year maximum to show for
themselves. We can’t support it; we never could.
We’re not likely to now in particular, and as time goes on,
it’s only going to get tougher. The thing we are
finding out right now is that ultimately, these companies are going
to distinguish themselves very carefully.
Let me give you a case and point. Walking around
yesterday, at several of the booths, the salespeople were talking
to each other, not talking to customers. Customers with
brochures in hands were standing off to the side. They
don’t know how to approach; they’re not getting the
information that they need. The airplanes are out there and
that’s great, but there’s nobody out there talking
about the merits of the business. There’s nobody out
there answering the questions about how to fly, how to buy, how to
license, how to maintain, and how to support what they have to
offer. In most cases, you don’t see that. You do
in a few places, and I hate to say it but you see it at
Cessna. You see it at Piper. You see it at
Van’s. You see it at RANS. You see it at Flight
Design. They are companies with time in the business,
companies that understand service and support, and companies that
are here long after they started simply because the only way to
survive was to support the customer, market to the customer, and be
professionals. And this is where we are running into some
problems.
Yet another case and point, fellow finally gets the attention of
two salespeople in a quasi-popular LSAs’ display area, shows
up, nudges the elbow, finally gets their attention, and the first
question out of the salesmen’s mouth is, “Do you have
$160,000 to buy this airplane?” In other words, if he
didn’t, he’s wasting his time and so forth and so
on. Not what we are looking to do. There is a coming
breakdown where we’re going to see the maturation of this
industry devolve this 100-product industry down to the dozen, or
fifteen, or maybe even twenty that can survive in certain
segments. It’s coming fast, and this is probably the
year we’re going to see the windowing process start in
earnest.
The associations are starting to pay a bit more attention where
they need to; we’re seeing more attention from AOPA, which in
the past, didn’t know what to do with LSA and is finally
deciding to do something. EAA’s process where,
they’re realizing now, that rather than just taking credit
for something that originally they were trying to kill now has to
be supported, and they’ve got some awfully good people
working in that. I think that they’ve got a mandate to
do their job. And then finally, like anything else,
it’s a matter now as the economy tries to recover and
stumbles along, people are finding out that there’s an
exceptional value here.
The one over-shadowed problem of all things is simply
this: it’s always been expensive to be in
aviation. LSAs are no different. $100,000, or $120,000,
or $160,000 for an LSA is a tough price to pay. Of course,
you can’t get the prices down until you get the volume, and
you can’t get the volume until you get the prices down.
It is going to be an interesting thing to watch this industry try
to mature, try to build itself into a more professional, more
polished industry.
We’re seeing the first signs of the people that are
attempting, but you watch: future U.S. Sport Aviation Expos
will be more about supporting the customer and less about giving
them way too many choices because ultimately, those many choices
are just simply not going to survive. And the professionals,
the folks that are willing to market, willing to support, willing
to hold hands, willing to show them what they can do after they
make the sale to keep them happy, to keep them in the air, and to
keep them safe, those are going to be the survivors at the 2011
U.S. Sport Expo and beyond.