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Tue, Jan 20, 2009

Boeing Isn't Guaranteed To Win Next Presidential Aircraft Contract

The Audacity Of... An A380 Air Force One?

Even as the plight of US manufacturers has revived "buy American" sentiment, the Pentagon appears to be opening the door for the next Air Force One to come from Toulouse, France.

As he takes office Tuesday, President Barack Obama inherits use of two Boeing 747-200Bs outfitted for duty as Air Force One, a flying office and command center equipped with defensive countermeasures, aerial refueling capability, lavish staterooms, and 87 phone lines -- 28 of them encrypted.

But the planes, which have been in use since 1990, are getting a little rickety, and expensive to maintain. So recently, the US Air Force quietly started kicking tires. The Los Angeles Times reports that for the first time since Boeing started supplying the planes during the Kennedy administration, the Pentagon has requested information not only from Boeing, but also from Airbus.

Of note, the Boeing 747 used to be the world's largest airliner, but that title now belongs to the Airbus A380, which has one-upped the floor space of the 747 by a whopping 40 percent.

Despite the fact that the new Marine One Presidential helicopter fleet will come from a consortium which includes Italian and British companies, most industry observers believe it would be unthinkable to have an American President step out of a foreign-made Air Force One.

John Pike, director GlobalSecurity.org, predicts Congress would have a fit. "The American president getting off of an American plane has been a major part of the US being a superpower."

But Teal Group aerospace analyst Richard Aboulafia isn't so sure the A380 idea couldn't happen. "At first it sounds inconceivable, but then again so did the presidential helicopter selection," Aboulafia said. "If politics was completely removed, the Air Force may decide they need all the space they can get."

For its part, Boeing does not plan to go quietly. The company is mum on details, but is thought to be readying a new proposal based on the new, larger, 747-8 Intercontinental, which is scheduled to enter airline service in 2011. The earliest the Air Force would expect the three new planes it wants for the Air Force One fleet would be 2016.

Lexington Institute Defense Policy Analyst Loren Thompson predicts that regardless of any advantage for the A380, going in that direction would be tough. "It would be like the president arriving in a BMW limousine."

There is another factor, however -- unmentioned in the Times report -- that may ultimately favor Boeing in the end. For the last Air Force One contract, the USAF required aircraft submitted for consideration to have been proven in regular commercial service for a number of years.

That's why the USAF opted for the then 29-year-old 747-200 design, over the larger and more modern 747-400 variant... which was still in development when the last contract was awarded, and was just entering service in 1990. Unless the Air Force decides to downsize Air Force One to a Boeing 777 (or an Airbus A330) that would seem to favor the -400 being selected this time around.

Regardless of what aircraft is chosen, the first new Air Force One aircraft won't fly until 2017 at the earliest... which means even if he wins a second term, President Obama won't fly on the plane he ultimately chooses during his time in office.

FMI: www.whitehouse.gov/whmo/af1.html, www.boeing.com, www.airbus.com

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