This Episode Features A Presentation By Kit Darby, AIR Inc. (Part One In A Series Examining A Ponderous Issue)

We've been hearing about it for years... a pilot shortage... a critical one, at that. For many in the aviation community, it sounded like good news... at least if you were on the bottom rungs of the pilot hiring ladder and working desperately to climb your way up. However; after engaging in discussions throughout the industry over the last year and in attending a particularly pointed (and very well-organized) presentation at the FAA Forecast Conference some months ago, ANN and Aero-TV are left with the troubling impression that aviation has a BIG problem on its hands.

The session devoted to discussing the Pilot Supply was, as indicated earlier, exceptionally produced and wholly on target. the session was presented by Moderator Peter J. Wolfe, Executive Director, Professional Aviation Board of Certification (PABC), and augmented by presentations delivered by Kit Darby, President, AIR, Inc, Captain Paul Rice, First Vice President, Air Line Pilots Association, International, Ron Levy, University Aviation Association, John Dixon, Director of Pilot Recruitment for American Eagle.

The first presentation, and one that set quite a trend for the session, was delivered by Kit Darby. Kit Darby is the president of Aviation Information Resources (AIR, Inc.). Currently a B767 captain with United Airlines, Mr. Darby has interviewed 20 times with 16 different airlines and worked with three majors and one national airline since 1978. He has a BS in Aeronautical Studies from Embry-Riddle AU. Kit is coauthor of the Simulator Flying Guide, Beginners' Guide to Becoming a Career Pilot, the World Wide Pilot Supply Report, World Wide Jet Transport Simulator Study and the new Pilot Career Guide. Kit's flight experience includes 15,000 hours total time, 10,000 hours jet time. He has an ATP with B737, B727, DC-8, and B767 type ratings, flight/instrument and engineer instructor, commercial instrument helicopter pilot, plus military instructor/instrument examiner ratings in two helicopters and five fixed-wing multi-engine aircraft.

Darby started his discussion with some startling statistics... US air-fleets will grow from 4,133 AC to 7,402 AC by 2025 – which represents nearly almost 65% growth. That means there will be 7,402 new A/C which require (on average) some 12 pilots per airframe/AC which leaves us with a need for 88,824 new pilots. No one needs to tell you that this is a LOT of pilots... who not only have to be trained but get time and experience in the system to be able to handle the new generation of airliners coming our way (or keep the old ones flying, for that matter).

Darby also clued everyone in on the fact that A/C utilization is approximately 8.26 hours/day in the US, alone, and that A/C utilization expected to increase by 8% annually, over the next 20 years. Add that to the fact that US pilot productivity is nearing its maximum capabilities and you see why Darby was conducting the equivalent of yelling "Fire" in a crowded room. And the situation, overseas is far more contentious.

So... worried yet? You should be. The situation is troublesome, answers are few and aviation safety can only be negatively impacted if the situation is not dealt with. Not sure about that? Well... load up Part One of our series on Understanding the Pilot Shortage and see if you don't agree that this is an issue that needs urgent attention.

Click Here To See the Aero-TV Special Series: Understanding The Pilot Shortage (Part 1) 

E-I-C Note: This is the first in an extensive series on this topic... each of which will be presented every Monday (barring special programming requirements for breaking news or special event coverage) until completed...

FMI: www.jet-jobs.com, www.faa.gov