Mon, Jun 07, 2010
But Appears To Be Continuing On The Road To Recovery
With the GA industry apparently
showing signs of stagnation after a reasonable strong start to
2010, aviation market advisor Brian Foley (pictured) says
there is still no cause for panic, or even pessimism.
"Most recoveries aren't linear and the occasional pullback can
be expected," Foley said in a recent interview. "A year ago we
postulated this recovery might have a W-shape, and that appears to
be what's happening. The industry takes one step back before taking
two more forward."
European troubles may explain the current situation, Foley says.
"Europe is the world's second largest business-aviation
market. Financially, it's been in disarray. Worldwide stock markets
have responded with double-digit percentage drops. So how can any
industry go unaffected, at least temporarily? Yet I don't believe
the long-term outlook really suffers. Europe and the markets will
adjust themselves (they always do), at which point the recovery can
resume in synch."
Foley believes this slowdown will be shorter lasting and less
pronounced than the big recessionary downturn of 2008-2009. "But
its timing is almost ironic," he adds. "Many of the companies
affected were just beginning to show improvement after an extended
period of austerity. Now their sales have lagged again
(though not all of them will admit it), and we may find evidence of
this in things like reduced plant activity and possibly even
furloughs this summer. But then the recovery should resume on a
steadier, upward trend.
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