But Appears To Be Continuing On The Road To Recovery

With the GA industry apparently showing signs of stagnation after a reasonable strong start to 2010, aviation market advisor Brian Foley (pictured)  says there is still no cause for panic, or even pessimism.

"Most recoveries aren't linear and the occasional pullback can be expected," Foley said in a recent interview. "A year ago we postulated this recovery might have a W-shape, and that appears to be what's happening. The industry takes one step back before taking two more forward."

European troubles may explain the current situation, Foley says. "Europe is  the world's second largest business-aviation market. Financially, it's been in disarray. Worldwide stock markets have responded with double-digit percentage drops. So how can any industry go unaffected, at least temporarily? Yet I don't believe the long-term outlook really suffers. Europe and the markets will adjust themselves (they always do), at which point the recovery can resume in synch." 

Foley believes this slowdown will be shorter lasting and less pronounced than the big recessionary downturn of 2008-2009. "But its timing is almost ironic," he adds. "Many of the companies affected were just beginning to show improvement after an extended period of austerity.  Now their sales have lagged again (though not all of them will admit it), and we may find evidence of this in things like reduced plant activity and possibly even furloughs this summer. But then the recovery should resume on a steadier, upward trend.

FMI: www.brifo.com