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Thu, Jan 17, 2013

IBA COO Says Dreamliner Grounding Will Not Impact The Airplane's Value

Seymour: 'All New ... Aircraft Will Exhibit Reliability And Technical Issues'

Despite a series of technical issues culminating today with the grounding of all Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft in Japan, and a similar move by the FAA, Phil Seymour Chief Operating Officer of the International Bureau of Aviation (IBA), does not foresee any impact on values of the Boeing 787.

“All new entry into service aircraft will exhibit reliability and technical issues, it was no different for the Airbus A380." says Seymour. “Teething problems often occur in the first two years and with such cutting edge technologies as have been introduced on the 787 it is not surprising. The safety systems that have been implemented are going to err on the side of caution. It is too early to speculate on the root cause of today’s cabin smoke incident.”

It is noteworthy that Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA) who have grounded the aircraft operate slightly different specification aircraft, with Japan Airlines operating 787s with General Electric GEnx-1B engines and ANA operating 787s with Rolls Royce Trent 1000 engines. This would initially indicate that the problem is not to do with the engines or their related systems.

According to IBA’s JetData there are currently 51 Boeing 787 aircraft in service across eight operators, with another 82 due to deliver this year and an overall order backlog of 516. The current market value of a 2012 delivered Boeing 787-800 is $107 million and the typical lease rental rates would be in the range of $950,000 - $1.1million per month according to IBA’s JetValues2. “Depending upon how serious the recent issues are perceived by the authorities, there could be an Airworthiness Directive issued which applies to all Boeing 787’s. However, even in such an extreme case we would not foresee any adverse impact on either the values or lease rates.”

“Boeing will be working hard to reassure passengers and airlines that the B787 is a very safe aircraft, and airlines will always have the comfort of manufacturer warranties to call upon,” Seymour said.

(Editors note. This analysis was done before the FAA announced it was grounding all U.S.-registered Dreamliners)

(ANA Dreamliner pictured in file photo)

FMI: www.ibagroup.com


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