Barring Something "Really Stupid" (Again) Bid Is Boeing's To
Lose
As the Air Force continues to ponder its decision on a lucrative
tanker contract, several analysts say the winds seem to be blowing
Boeing's way. While nothing is official yet, word is that
Boeing’s KC-767 is the favorite to win, over the
Airbus-derived KC-30 offered by Northrop and EADS.
In a Bloomberg survey of 10 industry watchers, most lean heavily
in favor of Boeing winning over Northrop-Grumman for the $40
billion KC-X tanker program. Analyst Eric Hugel of Stephens Inc.
follows Northrop... and he says "The preferred supplier is Boeing,"
adding the contract "is Boeing's to lose, and Boeing would have to
do something really stupid to lose it."
EADS may take some comfort from past history, however... which
would seem to indicate Boeing is capable of doing precisely what
Hugel says.
After all, the company was awarded the original tanker bid in
2003... but the decision was subsequently shot down by Congress,
after conflict-of-interest issues involving former Air Force
official Darleen Druyun came to light. As ANN reported, an internal
Boeing investigation found that, while Druyun was still at the
Pentagon, she was approached by a Boeing executive with an offer to
join the company... while she was in charge of the Air Force's
contracts with Boeing.
Northrop also notes that despite a substantial head-start in
KC-767 development over its EADS rival, the Boeing tanker has yet
to be delivered to its first customer, due to niggling technical
issues.
Pentagon and USAF officials are due to review the process for
assessing the bids this week. A final decision could come any time
after that; officials hope to have an announcement by early March,
if not sooner.
Out of the 10 respondents in the Bloomberg survey, nine believe
Northrop would protest if the contract is handed to Boeing...
partly due to the fact the KC-30 is a highly-competitive offering,
but mostly due to the scandal that led to the current KC-X
competition.
"We certainly have an extraordinarily competitive airplane,"
Northrop's chief executive, Ronald Sugar, said in a recent
interview. "It's a more capable aircraft, it's larger and carries
more fuel."
Boeing counters the KC-767 is cheaper, because it isn't the
'jack of all trades' aircraft the KC-30 was designed to be. The
EADS offering is a derivative of the KC-330 Multi-Role Tanker
Transport (MRTT) aircraft -- which, in addition to being an aerial
refueler, also offers troop transport and cargo hauling
capabilities. The KC-767 fits all the parameters of the KC-X bid,
the American planemaker says, without the extras.
Five respondents to the survey expect a Northrop protest would
lead to a split deal, something Boeing has admitted could be the
case. The Air Force has stuck to its guns so far, however, saying
it's only interested in one supplier.
Final bids for KC-X were submitted January 3, leaving plenty of
time to speculate over potential winners and pitfalls along the
way.
ANN's Daily Aero-Linx (04.15.24)
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