NASA's Jim Van Laak Speaks At Oshkosh

by ANN Correspondent Chris Esposito

Jim Van Laak, of the NASA Langley Systems Management Office, spoke at Oshkosh this week about the important of risk management in the privatized spaceflight sector. Laak, who has been a pilot for 37 years and owned 30 airplanes, knows risk well. In his career, he has had eight engine failures and three fires in flight. Laak's experience working with 21 Shuttle missions has given him a unique perspective on the hazards inherent in manned spaceflight.

Laak, who has also worked extensively with the American and Russian space programs, reminds us that in spaceflight, there is "lots of risk and people will ultimately get killed." With suborbital flights possible for many in less than five years, and privatized orbital flights possible in the next fifteen, a successful risk management approach will be a necessity to ensure continuing exploration in this field. "We're on the brink of a new era where spaceflight for the masses is a possibility," says Laak.

Governments spend billions of dollars on spaceflight and still see casualties, despite huge efforts to avoid them. Spaceflight cannot afford the bureaucratic nature of such huge organizations, Laak reminds us. He mentioned the recent accident in Mojave involving Scaled Composites, which Laak says is "another illustration of the danger."

Laak cites the NASA saying "better, fast, and cheaper -- pick two." Stressing environments and huge amounts of energy increase the chances of failure; electronics and other ship materials will have to deal with 500 degree temperature differentials in space. Since the preferred method for personal space transportation seems to be solid rocket motors because of their simplicity, design of the spacecraft must incorporate features compatable with the motors. "Solid rocket motors tend to make a great deal of vibration." he says.

The solution, according to Laak, is to anticipate and mitigate negative events. No operation can avoid risk in spaceflight, but Laak urges the "intelligent acceptance of prudent risk." Implementing comprehensive risk management will include simplifying systems and designing products to be reliable in the space environment, since there are "few opportunities to stop and sort things out." says Laak. Aggressive, dynamic flight profiles should be avoided, and prospective clients should be on the lookout for unrealistic or unsubstantiated claims.

Invisible risks will also be inherent. Complex rocket systems and software programs (which is sometimes not tested in the space environment) are two items of immediate concern. Contingency plans are another important factor, says Laak. "How will they respond if they see a big yaw develop in ascent?" he asks.

To ensure success in privatized spaceflight, the companies involved must embrace the lessons learned from NASA's space missions. With the Shuttle, nonrealistic expectations combined with engines operating at very high energy levels led to a program that was extremely expensive in the long run. The issue with solid rocket engines, says Laak, is "when you light the sucker, you hang on 'till it's done." Hybrid engines, such as those being developed for SpaceShipTwo, are easier to control because they can be "throttled back," says Laak.

Successful designs are likely to be either winged or parachute-equipped spacecraft. Vertical landing spacecraft are inherently more complex, as systems must be designed to handle the extra workload of a powered descent. Controllable hybrid rocket engines that use an oxidizer are also more likely to be successful, due to the increased chance of successfully aborting if a problem arises.

Laak says that "attention to detail-figuring out and understanding" will be a significant factor in problem solving, especially in the spaceflight environment. With the recent accident involving Scaled Composites, it is clear that inherent risk lies in spaceflight, even during testing with an experienced crew. Laak feels simplicity will be key in the future developments of personal space travel.

FMI: www.nasa.gov, www.airventure.org