Predicts Eurocopter, Bell Will Supply Bulk Of 2,176 Helos

In a new study, "The Market for Light Military Rotorcraft," Forecast International projects that 2,176 light rotorcraft will be produced for military use during the 10-year period from 2008 through 2017. The Connecticut-based firm estimates the value of this production at $22.3 billion, in constant 2008 US dollars. The new study generally defines a rotorcraft as "light" when it has a maximum gross weight of less than 15,000 lb.

The Forecast International projections indicate that annual light military rotorcraft production will more than double within the next several years. Yearly production is projected to rise steadily from an estimated 132 rotorcraft in 2008 to 291 rotorcraft in 2014. According to the study, this growth will make the light military segment the most dynamic part of the world rotorcraft market during this time period. The overall rotorcraft market is experiencing considerable strength, and the light military segment is expected to lead the way.

A number of factors are driving the growth in the light military rotorcraft market. One is the ongoing restructuring of US Army aviation, which involves a number of new procurement programs.

Forecast states two of these programs, the Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter (ARH) and the Light Utility Helicopter (LUH), will see the Army take delivery of hundreds of new light helicopters in coming years. (The report apparently does not reflect the recent cancellation of the ARH program, however -- Ed.)

Another factor cited by Forecast is the proliferation of new helicopter models that are just entering service or are about to do so. Manufacturers will strive to quickly ramp up production of these models in order to work off accumulated order backlogs and get helicopters into the hands of their customers. Many of these models are from companies outside the United States.

With a booming military market and a strong civil market, many manufacturers and suppliers are scrambling for production capacity as they bump up against their existing capacity limits. According to Forecast International Senior Aerospace Analyst Raymond Jaworowski, "Manufacturers are striving to ramp up production of civil and military models alike. At the same time, they are pressuring and cajoling their suppliers to accelerate component production."

Market share projections included in the new Forecast International study indicate that Eurocopter and Bell will be the top two manufacturers in the light military rotorcraft market during the next 10 years. Eurocopter will lead in units produced, while Bell is expected to be second. The order is reversed in terms of value of production, with Bell taking the top spot and Eurocopter placing second.

The projections indicate that AgustaWestland will be third, and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) will be fourth, in both unit production and value of production.

FMI: www.forecastinternational.com