ANN's Aero-Dozen: The Top Twelve Stories of 2006 (Part One) | Aero-News Network
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Mon, Jan 01, 2007

ANN's Aero-Dozen: The Top Twelve Stories of 2006 (Part One)

Depending on who you talk to, 2006 was either a very good year for aviation, or a year of much foreboding.

This was a year... in which general aviation continued to make much progress, but saw the specter of user fees threatening it at every corner.

This was a year... in which the F-22 and the F-35 flew, but the reality of budget tightening threatened both programs.

This was a year...in which the Airlines made progress, slow though it may be, from the brink of bankruptcy to the brink of profitability -- however at the cost of their employees, stockholders, and the trust of the American public.

This was a year... in which business aviation continued to thrive, but also a year in which it continued to take flak from a media that didn't understand it, an FAA that didn't value it, and the airlines who covet their prosperity.

This was a year... actually a great year for sport aviation, as the sport pilot community saw blue skies for the first time in a long while, and new airplanes filled the sky at a rapidly increasing rate... but the costs of entry into the LSA community still seems to be way too much for the average Joe to handle.

This was a year... in which the space shuttle got back to business, the commercial spaceflight industry made incremental progress, and plans for the future on both sides of the aisle moved forward... but to all intents and purposes the progress has been marginal, and far less than what people expected by now.

So, okay... 2006 was a mixed bag and it's bloody hard to determine which stories or story topics truly line up at the top of a list that we've decided to limit to a solid dozen entities -- presented in quasi-alphabetical order. But warts and all, this is what we've come up with -- the stories that made a splash in 2006 -- while also containing some promise (good and bad) for the future. Read them, think about them, and let us know what YOU think.

Baby Steps: NASA v Commercial Space

It's been a few years since the loss of a second Space Shuttle brought tragedy to the aerospace world, and a few years since the glorious successes of SpaceShip One. To many, the slow painstaking progress of bringing the Space Shuttle program back to an operational mode has been endemic of a NASA that no longer has the "game" it once had.

Mind you, the shuttle has now flown several times with great success, and pulled off some amazing missions (the last, in particular, was an amazing effort, bar none). But let's face it, the grand ol' space-bird is a lame-duck, and instead of advancing the art of the space plane; political expediency has decreed that the next generation will be based on technology that got us to the moon nearly 40 years ago.

I'm not impressed... few others are... and for a nation that not only prided itself, but demonstrated, its phenomenal technical acumen in aerospace, many see the new lunar initiatives as embarrassingly 'conservative' and shortsighted. We so agree. The sad part of this is that, ultimately, based on the intimate knowledge we have within the NASA community and the many friends and associates we've come to know from that talented group, NASA STILL has the cojones to be able to do much better than the Space Shuttle or the next generation Saturn clone, and (in the process) truly further the art and craft of aerospace. But -- the politicians won't let them, and a jaded public won't pay for it.

We can get into all the nickels and dimes of how the spaceflight community has truly benefitted the public in so many unnamed and (probably) unknown ways, and how every dime spent on spaceflight has comeback as Oh-So-Many dollars -- but the public doesn't want to hear it, the politicians won't sell it, and it's up to the private space entrepreneur to go them one better.

So... what about the private space entrepreneur? Well, 2006 was not his (or her) best year... at least not from what we can see at this point. There are a number of exciting projects in the works but few of them are seeing airtime and none of them are seeing vacuum.

At this year's XPrize Cup, we saw extraordinarily exciting technologies demo'ed by Armadillo Aerospace, whose Pixel and Texel robotic rockets truly amazed the space veterans who came to judge their progress. However; Armadillo is but one of several dozen companies that promise great things, and are yet to produce them. This is not an indictment of the private space industry, mind you, as we all know that progress is going to be slow and tough -- but we sure wish we'd see some of the excitement we saw in 2004 when Burt Rutan rocked our world, Mike Melville tasted space, and Brian Binney set records.

In the meantime, Spaceship Two is tightly under wraps, the Virgin Galactic folks are saying very-very little, and the only member of the XPrize community to make it to space this last year was a lovely Iranian woman, Anoushe Ansari, whose family underwrote the original XPrize competition -- but still had to pay 20 plus million dollars for the privilege of using outdated Russian-American technology in order to look down upon the "little blue marble."

We have great hopes for 2007 and if push comes to shove, were still very "up" on the private space entrepreneurial race, but dear Lord, we sure miss the excitement we felt a few years ago, and we hope to feel it again soon.

Boeing/Airbus Skirmishes

The war continues...... and the expense of an unending battle makes those involved weary with both the cost as well as the lack of a clear winner in what has become one of the world's most hotly contested battles -- the aviation world, that is.

No, we're not talking about Iraq, we're talking about the ever present war between America's Boeing, and the European Airbus consortium. A few years ago, it sure appeared that Airbus had the war all but won. They were racking up huge sales, introducing exciting new airplanes, and riding the wave of the latest technologies in such a way that even mighty Boeing was ill-equipped to match.

That was then... this is now.

Airbus' mighty gamble on the A380 has stumbled -- and stumbled hard. Aircraft that should have been delivered by now will not be delivered until 2008. Attempts to compete with Boeing's massive wager on the Boeing 787, with a hastily conceived competitor called the A350, were met with snorts of derision by Airbus' biggest fans. It was back to the drawing board for the A350, continued time at the drawing board for the A380, and despite the A380's recent basic certification, it's going to be a good long while before the Airbus behemoth graces the skies of the world while undertaking REAL-LIVE commercial service.

In the meantime, Boeing has gotten smart (who knew?). After an abortive stab at a new design program based around a slightly faster than normal commercial airline concept called the Sonic Cruiser (shown above), and the lack of near immediate interest from their normal clientele; Boeing not only went back to the drawing board but went back to their marketing team and asked them the big question... "what can you sell -- REALLY?"

The ultimate result was an aircraft that we have come to know as the 787. The aircraft is a refinement of all things Boeing, and a few technologies that Boeing's flirted with over the years, but never fully adopted. This is an efficient airplane, this is an efficient airplane in the way that this class of airplanes have never been so efficient before. This is an aircraft that is designed with aggressive adherence to the dictum that this airplane had to be better than anything they have ever done. While the rumor mill insists that the 787 is having weight problems and some fabrication issues; a first flight in the not too distant future is in the cards, and our sources indicate that the 787 program is doing far better than the naysayers would like to think -- and certainly far better than Airbus hopes.

2007 will be a watershed year for Boeing, as fattening order books for the 777, various versions of the 737, and the new 787 prove that Boeing still has "it" and is in a position to compete head to head with Airbus. At that point, it stops being a war and starts being a horse race... and they're off!!!!

Crash Consequences -- Comair 5191/Lidle NYC Accident/Gol-Embraer Midair

Airplanes crash. Sometime, airplanes crash a lot. And no one knows that more, or seems to love it more, than the general media on a slow news day.

2006 was possibly the most specific example of such thinking in years. We at Aero-News have an unusual viewpoint as we not only have to maintain a lofty standard for accuracy and fairness on behalf of the aviation community, but are often put in the position of having to educate and correct our brothers and sisters in the general media. In three of the most publicized accidents of 2006, ANN played a significant role within the aviation community, as well as with the general media -- and gained new and additional insights into both.

Overall, we can't say we were all that impressed with the general media's coverage of aviation this year, especially when they went into feeding frenzy mode. Several notable reporters, mostly those with some kind of aviation background, did try to get it right and we applaud them for that... most notably CNN's Miles O'Brien. What was particularly compelling about 2006 was the fact that in this day and age, when aviation is so much safer than it has ever been, "airplane gore" is still like manna from heaven to many a journalist on deadline. And to many journalists on a deadline, aeronautical facts are not necessarily a priority, while the body count is. Some things never change.

Three crashes, in particular, made the news this year -- each in some unique ways. The Comair crash in Lexington, Kentucky was fascinating to us, in particular, because this was the year that ANN's "News-Spy" network really hit its stride. Within minutes of the accident, ANN readers from the area were on the phone to ANN headquarters with strong and compelling evidence to show that this doomed CRJ had taken off on the wrong runway -- and in very short order, thereafter, we had proof. Through the help of ANN's sources at the scene, our News-Spy network, and some good journalism from the folks at ANN HQ, we broke the story about the CRJ's use of the wrong runway hours before it was confirmed by the National Transportation Safety Board and long before any other news source. At the same time, this got us a lot of attention, and put us in touch with a lot of news organizations that we had not worked with in the past. In most cases we found people who were trying hard to get the facts -- but still being pushed by deadline pressures. In other cases we ran into journalists were more interested in the prurient aspects of the accident, then the fascinating details that were emerging showing that the national aviation system (as safe as it may be) still apparently had some flaws to be worked out. It took far longer than we had hoped for that message to get through -- once the local media tired of touting how many people burned to death.

On another score, the New York crash of a well-known sports figure in a technologically advanced aircraft produced some surprisingly fair coverage, overall, once everybody got over the jitters of the initial announcement that some kind of plane had hit a building in New York. Once we recovered from the 9/11 flashbacks, a surprising number of local and national journalists touted the safety features of the aircraft involved, the proper rules and practices in force, and the fact that even well-trained pilots like the flight instructor on board that aircraft and his student, occasionally make mistakes. We could have done far worse that week... though we were particularly distressed that the FAA caved in to political pressure so quickly in announcing new restrictions to the airspace. Thanks to the efforts of a number of aviation organizations as well as the manufacturers involved in this accident setting straight many journalists who were looking for the less seemly aspects of this accident, we believe the general media got the message fast enough and clear enough that many of the expected inaccuracies did not occur.

Finally there was the story that didn't get the attention it deserved. The tragic GOL 737/Embraer midair/fatal crash into the jungles of South America merited a few headlines and soundbytes on the evening news, but the desperately necessary follow-up to a significantly dramatic story never came.

Brazilian officials, in apparent need of a scapegoat due to ponderous issues involving its air-traffic network, decided to play sky cop. Not only did they play sky cop, they played judge, jury and executioner poorly. And long before any ethical or responsible investigative agency could have produced a solid investigation of the tragedy, the Brazilians were spouting nonsense -- and positing causes. They made statements that were not backed up by facts, they over emotionalized a tragedy, and it became apparent that they were attempting to criminalize what should have been a professional and dispassionate investigation. This is truly dangerous territory. The investigative process, if it is to work properly, has to be unemotional, clinical, and devoid of outside interference. The Brazilians have doomed the GOL investigation with their unfairness, inaccuracy, and turned it into a political football. This is a story I wish had been seen outside of the aviation press, far more than it was, and one that needs to be publicized far and wide, as the danger to the future of aviation is extraordinary if we cannot conduct fair and open investigations without the specter of political interference. I hope 2007 is devoid of such nonsense. We shall see...

Declining Glories: The Airline Career

Remember when you were a kid and an airplane flew overhead?
Remember how you looked upon pilots as they walked through airports resplendent in their black or blue uniforms with silver and gold braid?
Remember how you admired those who made a living out of flying huge aluminum tubes through the ether, bringing families to their loved ones, businessmen to their clients, and people to grand new adventures?
And, of course, as you grew older it may not have escaped you that airline pilots made good money, as did their brothers and sisters in the maintenance and service fields...

Boy... didn't you grow up wanting an airline job?

Folks, those days are gone -- and gone for good. The glory days of the airline world, and more specifically the airline career, is a nearly comical but no less tragic ghost of former greatness. Greed, financial mismanagement, poor regulatory oversight, and a nearly psychotic competitive zeal have ruined the airline industry. Worse than that, intense and (in many cases) positive working relationships that existed between the people who did the work, and the people who called the shots, has been all but destroyed.

Robber barons disguised as airline managers have broken the faith between their workers and the promises they made over decades by managing their companies poorly, and raiding promised pension and medical plans. Jobs that once carried great esteem have been changed into nearly unbearable chores that are worth far less to the worker than they were but a few years ago.

Yes, the airline industry suffered horribly as a result of 911, but the fact of the matter is that analysts can point to the seeds of this industry's destruction long before September of 2001, and despite all the tragedies that occurred that fateful day, there are still a few companies that have not only survived but thrived because they did not give in to the greed and stupidity espoused by their competitors. We realize these are incredibly strong words, but we cannot find anyone who can truly defend the overall conduct of the airline industry, and more important, the way in which they have cheated their staffers.

The stripping of pay, pensions and benefits from thousands of workers who desperately need those wages and programs (and who had no alternatives in place -- or warnings of any kind that they might need one) seems to us to be a criminal act --especially when so many of the ills and behaviors that created this mess are still in place.

Unfortunately, Congress, who has padded their pockets for years with airline lobby dollars, has given them a pass on these transgressions-- and to all those young men and women who might still dream of a career flying or supporting the airliners of the future, we strongly recommend you look at another industry, as this one is busted.

FMI: Comments?

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