Power-Up May Not Come Until Late June, Deliveries In Q3 2009

For Boeing, it's the stuff nightmares, not dreams, are made of. As anticipation builds towards power-on of the first 787 Dreamliner -- scheduled for the end of March -- and the aircraft's first flight sometime this summer, on Thursday an analyst went on record saying he expects another delay in delivery of the highly-popular aircraft. If true, it would be the third delay in the 787 program since the plane was unveiled last year.

Citing the ever-popular 'unnamed sources' in a note to investors, Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Safran wrote this week the American planemaker "continues to underestimate the amount of work required on the 787," according to Bloomberg. "Changes to the airplane have caused a delay in completing wiring of the aircraft," he added.

Safran says initial power-up may not occur now until the end of June. That would have a domino effect on the rest of the development, certification, and delivery schedule, he adds, pushing first deliveries for the 787 to the third quarter of 2009 instead of Boeing's current target date of "early 2009."

Boeing is already about eight months behind schedule for the composite-bodied airliner. The planemaker debuted the aircraft in a flashy ceremony on July 8, 2007... but it soon became clear that plane was little more than a cobbled-together shell, and serious issues with suppliers, fasteners and wiring lay behind the scenes.

As ANN reported, Boeing announced the first six-month delay to Dreamliner deliveries in October 2007.. and while heads at Boeing didn't necessarily roll, they did bounce, with former 787 program chief Mike Bair shuffled out of the program, and several executives from other Boeing areas moving over to the troubled 787 program.

Things seemed to be on track after that, and most 787 customers accepted the delay with little public grumbling. Sales of the airliner also continued at a fast pace, with 817 orders taken for the efficient airliner through December 2007. In January, however, Boeing announced a second delay, this one of about three months... and eyebrows raised.

Boeing currently claims 857 net orders for the plane... and its customers are growing increasingly restless, at least when cameras and microphones are rolling. If Safran's prognostication comes to pass, the 787 will fly at least one year after Boeing's original target date.

Yvonne Leach, spokesperson for Boeing, wouldn't comment on Safran's projections -- saying only the planemaker is "working hard to meet milestones," and the "assessment is ongoing" regarding a revised delivery timetable for the aircraft. "We will communicate to customers on this around the end of the first quarter," she added.

FMI: www.boeing.com, www.goldmansachs.com