Company Presents 20-year Forecast Of World Demand For 30- to
Embraer forecasts that the size of the world fleet of 30- to
120-seat jets will increase from 4,285 aircraft in 2009 to 7,780 in
2029. During this period, 51% of the new deliveries (3,495 units)
will be added to support current growth and 49% (3,380 units) will
be needed to replace aging equipment. By 2029, 21% of the current
fleet (905 jets) will still be in operation.
The company announced its 20-year forecast Monday. This category
serves low- and medium-density markets and is an essential
component of commercial aviation. The outlook analyzes industry
trends by world region and identifies the demand for new aircraft
from 2010 to 2029. Among the key trends are:
- 4.9% world average annual increase over the next 20 years.
- China's annual growth rate will be the highest, at 7.3%.
- Latin America, Asia Pacific, and Russia & CIS (Commonwealth
of Independent States) air traffic is forecast to grow 6%
- Annual growth in Africa will average about 5%.
- North America and Europe will see average growth around 3.5%
- Asia Pacific and China will represent more than one-third of
the world air traffic by 2029.
- Mature markets (USA and Europe) will decrease their share of
world air traffic from 57% in 2009 to 44% in 2029.
Embraer predicts that more stringent limits on noise and
emissions will mandate the development of cleaner-burning fuel and
quieter aircraft. The company claims to have been a leader in
exploring technologies that will make its products compliant with
future environmental restrictions. It says the family of E-Jets
already reduces carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by up to 50%,
compared to older-generation aircraft. Some 1,100 jets operated by
scheduled airlines in the 30- to 120-seat category are over 15
years old and will need to be replaced.
For new aircraft, Embraer foresees global demand for 6,875 jets
in the 30- to 120-seat segment over the next 20 years. The
estimated market value of these new orders is approximately US$ 200
billion. Of this total, 2,895 jets are planned to be delivered
between 2010 and 2019, and the remaining 3,980 units between 2020
Embraer's market outlook has analyzed each segment. For example,
demand for 50-seat regional jets has matured, yet there are
opportunities for replacement over the next 20 years. The aircraft
will continue to feed hubs and provide service to smaller
communities in the U.S. and Europe. Fifty-seat jets will support
the development of regional aviation in other areas of the world,
such as Russia & CIS, Mexico, Africa and South America.
Aircraft in the 60- to 120-seat category will continue to
improve overall industry efficiency. These airplanes will help to
reduce excess capacity by rightsizing fleets comprised of larger
narrowbody jets. Aircraft in this segment are replacing old
equipment, developing new markets and allowing airlines to grow
gradually with smaller seat increments.