By ANN Contributor Thomas P. Turner

This past year, as always, presented events, some good, some not-so-good for general aviation. Focusing first on the “worst” of 2005 and then highlighting some of the “best” would undoubtedly include many common items among those who respond to ANN’s call.

So I’ll try to drill down to some items that are bubbling just below the surface of airspace penetrations and user fees and crashes, but nonetheless threaten great peril or show great promise for personal aviation.

Discouraging Words

The headlines blare a triple threat of airspace restrictions, increases costs and a declining pilot and aircraft base. Read the fine print, however, and you’ll find these emerging, and troubling, trends:

1. The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) for the Washington, D.C. “National Security Airspace” makes it clear that aviation policymaking is slipping from control of the Federal Aviation Administration (where relations with personal aviation are tenuous enough) and into the purview of the Department of Homeland Security. An unchecked change in regulatory intent from “safety” to “security” threatens to stifle personal aviation beyond even the concerns of airspace around our Capitol or other metropolitan areas.
2. The vast majority of our personal aviation fleet was certified under Civil Air Regulation 3 (CAR 3). These rules did not require manufacturers to determine fatigue life or damage tolerance characteristics -- it simply wasn’t considered that these airframes would be flying 30 to 40 years, or even half a century or more later.  2005 revisions to FAA Advisory Circular 23-13a and similar documents make it clear the FAA wants to retroactively require fatigue and damage tolerance studies on airplanes certified under CAR 3 for us to continue flying aging aircraft…and that they expect owners and “type clubs” to foot the bill. This unfunded Federal mandate would be out of financial reach for all but the very largest of type-specific owners’ organizations.
3. While production of new and exciting piston airplanes from companies like Cirrus and Diamond and Adam Aircraft are cause for genuine celebration, output from legacy companies like Piper and Beech continues at a bare trickle. Cessna is an unusual case with encouraging production numbers and Mooney (right) is the “odd man out,” with low production totals that nonetheless represent a heroic recovery from recent, perilous times. Even with these exceptions, however, continued parts and mechanic support of decades of aging airplanes and out-of-production types that are the backbone of the fleet is in serious danger as legacy companies debate the economics of continued manufacture.

And Now the Good News

There is cause, however, for optimism based on some events of 2005. Reaction to the Washington DC NPRM by Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta and others in the Government show that they are at least willing to listen to personal aviation’s concerns (with monstrous thanks to AOPA for spearheading this effort). Our exciting times include plans for commercial spaceflight and the imminent certification of Very Light Jets (VLJs) that led to what was arguably the best EAA Convention ever, and hopefully will have at least some trickle-down benefit for personal aviation.

Beyond the headlines there is good reason for (guarded) optimism:

1. The proliferation of free or low-cost on-line training, such as seminars from NASA and the AOPA Air Safety Foundation, make available to all pilots the level of expertise formerly available only to the wealthiest owners and professional pilots.
2. NASA, the FAA and industry’s demonstration of concepts for the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS), held last June in Danville, Virginia, showed how SATS research has already contributed to “glass cockpit” technologies now gracing even some Light Sport Aircraft (LSA) panels. If significant obstacles of VLJ certification, training, and insurability, and public acceptance of cost and “very little airplanes” as a replacement for highway business travel are overcome, the most promising result of the SATS project for personal aviation will be an emphasis on preserving and even improving the network of small, community airports.
3. U.S. introduction of the diesel-powered DA42 Twin Diamond (right) foretells acceptance of jet-fuel engines for personal aircraft, critical in facing the anticipated end of leaded fuel production in 2010. Other options for meeting this challenge, including computerized ignition control that has already been demonstrated to permit operation of big-bore engines on automotive fuel, are equally promising but the cost of retrofitting these to existing engines might well near the total value of the airplane.
4. Creation of the Sport Pilot industry promises to provide opportunity for pilots who likely could not otherwise afford to own and fly airplanes, although it remains to be seen if this new class will develop new pilots or merely appeal to existing pilots who cannot afford “traditional” airplanes or who are afraid they may not pass FAA medical requirements. It’s also uncertain if Sport Pilot will be more successful as a lower-cost “lead-in” program for Private and higher certification than was the Recreational Pilot initiative more than a decade ago.

There is therefore much cause for concern, and more than a glimmer of hope, for personal aviation in 2006. Beneath the headlines there is a dark undercurrent of troubling trends and grey-to-white reasons to rejoice for the future. The FAA tells us that complacency is one of the “five hazardous attitudes” that conspire to lead the unwary pilot to a crash. Complacency, also, is the greatest hazard we as an industry face.  Overcome our own inertia and there is great hope for personal aviation’s future.

(Thomas P. Turner is an aviation instructor, author and lecturer living in Wichita, KS. Tom also contributes weekly Aero-Tech segments for ANN's Aero-Casts, and will soon be bringing his daily Aero-Tips to ANN readers.)

FMI: www.thomaspturner.com, 2005 Year-in-Review Comments?