Forecast Firm Says Military Training Is About To Boom

Military fixed-wing trainer deliveries will rise steadily through this decade, according to a market overview issued by Forecast International, and will total 2,238 shipments worth $17.5 billion during the 2004-2013 timeframe. In light of the tactical aircraft re-equipment cycle now under way by many major air arms, the need to address some long-postponed trainer requirements is receiving new impetus.

Quantitatively speaking, the US Navy/Air Force Raytheon T-6A will be the most significant trainer during the next 10 years, with 693 deliveries projected for the U.S. services and export customers. No other type comes close – the EADS Mako and BAE Hawk, both advanced jet trainers, are expected to account for 260 and 250 shipments, respectively.

The newest market entry is the EADS Mako, which has not yet flown. The Mako design will offer a supersonic capability, and as the aircraft is still in the development stage, it could be designed to dovetail with upcoming requirements. Forecast International has projected the Mako to win the anticipated Advanced European Jet Pilot Training (AEJPT) competition, despite stiff competition from Aermacchi’s M-346. The AEJPT contest is aimed at developing a common trainer type for 12 nations which have been conducting joint studies intermittently for about 10 years. About 150 aircraft would be required should the AEJPT program go forward. As the Mako falls under the EADS umbrella, it may be a tough candidate to unseat, politically speaking.

The Korea Aerospace KT-1 turboprop and the same company’s T/A-50 jet are both being marketed outside Korea, thus far without success. The Sino-Pakistani HAIG/PAC team is another fairly recent newcomer, and is developing the K-8 jet trainer for both nations’ air forces.

Among the former Warsaw Pact manufacturers, Yakovlev and MiG report very modest orders from the Russian Air Force, with the MiG-AT also expected to be built in Poland to fill a trainer requirement of that country. The Czech Republic’s Aero Vodochody is locked in a dispute with Boeing, which bought into Aero several years back, over marketing issues with the L-159. That aircraft has yet to post its first export sale and its future appears far from bright.

Forecast International aviation analyst Bill Dane believes that the next generation of advanced jet trainers will almost certainly be products of joint ventures. The T-38 and Hawk replacements will be designed for pilots who must transition to combat jets with performance never before seen.

According to Dane, "No single company could afford to develop such a trainer because of the limited and protected market: those countries that develop and subsequently purchase the next-generation fast combat aircraft." He further notes that the shrinking force structures of Europe and America may compel nations to cooperate on the next-generation advanced jet trainers.

In the years ahead, manufacturers seeking to carve out a respectable share of this market will also have to weigh the cost of incorporating a light attack capability into their candidate aircraft for a broader market appeal against offering a competitively priced design which will adequately meet a given air arm’s training needs.

Forecast International is projecting EADS to dominate this market with a 22 percent market share on sales of $4.8 billion. The pan-European manufacturer will be trailed by Raytheon, BAE Systems, and the Korea Aerospace/Lockheed team.

FMI: www.forecast1.com