A Lot Of Eggs Are In The SpaceX Basket

Commentary and Analysis By Wes Oleszewski

At this moment, there are two nations on earth capable of putting humans into space - and we, here in the United States, ain’t one of them. Although that simple statement may sound shocking, its truth alone should shake us all to the core. And if it’s a bit hard to choke down- get used to it. The nation that once had astronauts driving on the moon and later developed a fleet of space planes that could be flown over and over, today cannot place a human into earth orbit and that is not likely to change anytime soon.

Falcon 9 Launch

Our current void in the “capability” to place our astronauts into space aboard our hardware is something the United States has not seen in a half century. When the final Apollo spacecraft flew on the Apollo Soyuz Test Project (ASTP) in 1975, the nation knew that our space program had a future and an upcoming capability with the Space Shuttle. In fact, just two years and three weeks after the end of the ASTP, two US astronauts landed the orbiter Enterprise at Edwards in the first Approach and Landing Test. Granted, the Enterprise was little more than an orbiter mock-up garnished with active flight controls and computer systems, yet it was symbolic of the fact that we had a follow-on space program with actual hardware and that we were advancing in a very specific direction. So although we did not have the “ability” to put people into space for just over five years, we maintained and developed the capability. During the shuttle program stand-downs following both the Challenger and Columbia accidents, no US astronauts flew in space, but we still had the capability in hardware, facilities and manpower. Following the retirement of the shuttle in July of 2011, the capability of the United States to place humans into space was retired wholesale- and no firm direction toward the return of that capability was offered by our national “leadership.” Although NASA grudgingly announced the upcoming Space Launch System (SLS), political support from the Obama administration was nearly invisible and flight schedules were based more on expected funding than on clear goals. Nearly a half year after the official SLS announcement a NASA committee is still working on missions and a schedules with the first unscrewed flight (singular) in about 2017 and the first crewed flight (singular) in about 2021. Thereafter an gaunt two-flights-per-year SLS schedule is being considered. As far as NASA is concerned, the near future does not look bright for US human spaceflight.

With NASA management apparently in a three way space-race with an accountant and a garden slug, it appears as if the “GO oriented” attitude that was once symbolic of America’s human spaceflight program has either been retired with the shuttle or canceled with NASA’s last dozen well illustrated computer graphic spaceflight projects. Yet, out of the wreckage of Bush’s underfunded “Vision for Space Exploration” and Obama’s directionless “NewSpace” is emerging an effort that actually has that “GO oriented” attitude in human spaceflight- it is the Commercial Crew Development program (CCDev).

Heritage spaceflight companies such as Lockheed Martin, ATK and Boeing along with new comers to human spaceflight such as Sierra Nevada, Orbital and SpaceX, et al. are the major players in the commercial manned spaceflight effort. At this moment the greatest chance for getting Americans back into space from United States soil aboard a US built vehicle appears to be in the lap of Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, AKA- SpaceX. For the highly motivated, highly skilled technology innovators at SpaceX, this moment in history must seem like their wildest dreams have come true. Yet, we on the outside can only imagine that they are feeling a good deal of pressure as well.

SpaceX Dragon COTS Spacecraft

On the 18th day of March, 2010 a Senate hearing was held, the subject was; “Assessing Commercial Space Capabilities.” The witnesses invited to testify at the hearing were Lieutenant General Thomas P. Stafford (USAF, NASA Astronaut, Gemini 6, Gemini 9, Apollo 10, ASTP), Mr. Bryan D. O'Connor (NASA-  Chief, Safety and Mission Assurance), Dr. George C. Nield (Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation, FAA), Mr. Malcolm L. Peterson (Former NASA Comptroller), Mr. Michael C. Gas (President and Chief Executive Officer, United Launch Alliance), Mr. Frank L. Culbertson Jr. (Senior Vice President and Deputy General Manager, Advanced Programs Group, Orbital Sciences Corporation) and Ms. Gwynne Shotwell (President, SpaceX). Some 125 minutes into the hearing Senator Nelson put forward some questioning as to the cost and how soon any of the “commercial” launch services could place a crewed spacecraft up to the International Space Station (ISS). While the other launch providers had given an earlier estimate of four to five years after they were contracted by NASA, Ms. Shotwell confidently said that SpaceX could “…guarantee flights to the ISS for less than $50 Million…” To which Senator Nelson quickly asked, “How soon?” and Ms. Shotwell replied “Three years from the time we initiate.” At that moment, the other witnesses appeared a bit stunned at the statement. THREE YEARS?! from a company that had yet to even fly the Falcon 9 booster that was supposed to do the job? Indeed, many of us in the spaceflight media, including myself, at that time saw that statement as being both arrogant and over-confident. Yet, after pondering at greater length Ms. Shotwell’s attitude, it may be better considered to be neither arrogant nor over-confident, but “GO oriented.” 

Artist's Concept SpaceX Dragon On Orbit

While the Space Shuttle orbiters are being rapidly degraded into museum pieces, a huge portion of the US human spaceflight workforce is standing in the unemployment line, human spaceflight infrastructure is being hauled away for scrap and NASA astronauts are forced to hitch rides aboard Russian Soyuz vehicles at a price of $54 million per seat or more- there are a lot of eggs in the SpaceX basket. Now, 22 months after Ms. Shotwell placed that statement into the congressional record- a GO oriented attitude may be just what we need.

With the successful launching of their Falcon 9 in mid 2010 and their successful orbital flight of a Dragon spacecraft in December of that same year, SpaceX appeared to have hit the ground running. Yet a series of delays caused the year 2011 to pass without a single SpaceX flight. As if to make up ground in early 2012, they have poised themselves to up the stakes significantly by combining the COTS-2 Demo. mission with the COTS-3 demo mission. “COTS” is NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation System whereby “private” or “commercial” spaceflight operators will send their own boosters and spacecraft up to supply the International Space Station (ISS). SpaceX’s COTS-1 mission was a successful orbital flight of the Dragon capsule and a subsequent recovery. COTS-2 was billed as an ISS flyby flight with a Dragon spacecraft approaching  the ISS but staying six to seven miles away from it. The COTS-3 demo would actually have a Dragon spacecraft dock with the ISS. In the recently approved combined mission profile the Dragon will rendezvous with the ISS about nine days after SpaceX launches the vehicle and then will be captured by the station’s remote manipulator arm and be positioned at a docking port. That mission is now scheduled for February 7, 2012.

If, as a cynic, you consider each of the upcoming SpaceX flights to be nothing more than motions in an already delayed effort to fulfill the COTS agreement, you would be correct. However, in doing so you will be missing the larger picture. As a nation, we MUST resume our role as the leader in human spaceflight and we need to do so RIGHT NOW. Thus, although the COTS flight are only of a cargo nature, each of these up-coming flights are also a critical step in the direction back toward United States leadership in human spaceflight as well. The basic Dragon spacecraft has been designed to haul either cargo or crew. Thus each time a Falcon 9 and a Dragon spacecraft flies they are fulfilling COTS requirements and at the same time laying the foundation for manned Dragon operations in CCDev.

CCDev Concepts

Of course, SpaceX is far from being the only game in town. Other “commercial” providers- Lockheed Martin, ATK, Boeing, Sierra Nevada and Orbital are making great strides in the area of commercial crew spaceflight. Assuredly, each has a “Go oriented” spirit within their company as they work toward their goals. And each has their own external fan club and each has their own detractors- as does SpaceX. This point in history, however, is not the time for “my-team vs. your-team” trash-talk. What will be happening with SpaceX and the other CCDev prospects in the next few years is not a sporting event. Instead the upcoming events represent a critical series of steps in the attempt to get this nation’s future in spaceflight technology back on track.

Set aside the political myopia and deliberate de-developmental efforts that have put America’s human spaceflight program into the mess where it resides right now. Anyone who honestly desires to see US human spaceflight again moving forward from US soil should be looking toward in the next SpaceX launch with a GO oriented attitude. The same goes for the steps being taken by other commercial operators. GO! should be the word most commonly spoken. Negativity will get us nowhere as a space-going nation.  The only attitude that will lead anywhere is one that is highly GO oriented. SpaceX clearly has it and the rest of us would do well to catch it.

FMI: www.spacex.com, www.nasa.com