Twenty-Year Outlook Strong For Efficient, Environmentally
Boeing forecasts that over the next
20 years, Southeast Asia's airlines will require more that 2,100
new airplanes valued at approximately $330 billion. Boeing
Commercial Airplanes Vice President of Marketing Randy Tinseth
shared the company's market data and forecast Monday at a media
conference focused on the global and Southeast Asia commercial
Globally, he said, airlines will need 29,000 new airplanes
through 2028, valued at $3.2 trillion. "It is encouraging that 27
percent of our 20-year forecast already is on order," Tinseth said.
"Equally important is that this backlog is well balanced - by type
of airplane, by airline business model, and region of the
Tinseth noted that as of the third quarter of 2009, Boeing had a
backlog of 3,400 airplanes, valued at $254 billion. Airlines and
the aviation industry in general have been hurt by a challenging
and volatile business environment, Tinseth said. The world economy
has been in recession, passenger and cargo traffic have declined
and fuel prices are volatile. "But data indicates that the economic
downturn has reached bottom and recovery has begun," Tinseth said.
"However, global recovery will be a long, slow process."
The Thai economy is anticipated to contract three percent in
2009, Tinseth noted, but is projected to grow around five percent
in 2010 before settling into a long-term annual growth trend of 4.5
percent. Global recovery to the 2008 peak won't occur until perhaps
2010, he said.
"In Southeast Asia, air traffic growth will outpace economic
growth," Tinseth said. "Air travel growth over the next 20 years is
expected to be above 6.5 percent, while the region's economy is
projected to grow at 4.6 percent." Looking at the Asia Pacific
region in its entirety, long-term annual air traffic growth is
projected to be 6.9 percent over the next 20 years, Tinseth added.
"Travel volumes in Asia Pacific overall are large and growing
rapidly," Tinseth said. "Asia Pacific will account for 41 percent
of travel in 20 years' time, up from around 32 percent today. In
fact, in less than 10 years, Asia Pacific will easily be the
largest air travel market in the world."
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To deal with the realities of the market created by the current
economic environment, airlines adapted quickly by adjusting
capacity, improving efficiency and restructuring, he said. "In the
longer term, airlines will continue to invest in more efficient,
environmentally progressive airplanes," said Tinseth, "that also
serve the travel patterns of air travelers with their ability to
fly to more places more often."
Tinseth said that Boeing is focused on a simple strategy: to
provide its airline customers with airplanes that are the right
size with the right capabilities at the right time. "Over the next
20 years, we see a tremendous demand to connect economies,
countries and most importantly people," he added. "It is not an
exaggeration to say that our airline customers play the central
role in bringing the word together."